Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Hosts can keep things tight in first half

Bayern Munich's UEFA Champions League dream was extinguished in midweek as a 1-1 draw with Paris Saint-Germain in the second leg of their semi-final tie saw the French giants advance to the final 6-5 on aggregate. Vincent Kompany's side won't have long to dwell on the result, though, as they head to the Volkswagen Arena this Saturday (17:30 BST, Sky Sports Football) for a Bundesliga game against relegation-threatened VfL Wolfsburg.
Read on for my Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich predictions, supported by team news and match odds, as the hosts hunt a shock win over the champions.
Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Betting Tips
- First Half Total Goals 2-Way - Under 1.5 @ 1/1
- Bet Builder - Nicolas Jackson (FCB) Anytime Goalscorer & Patrick Wimmer (WOB) 2+ Tackles @ 21/10
*Odds correct as of the time of publication
Team News
Jenson Seelt, Bence Dardai (both knee), Maximilian Arnold (groin), Jonas Wind, Rogerio (both muscle), Kilian Fischer (thigh) and Cleiton (ankle) are all injured for Dieter Hecking's Wolfsburg.
As for Bayern Munich, Serge Gnabry (muscle), Maycon Cardozo (thigh), Wisdom Mike (hip) and Cassiano Kiala (ankle) miss out.
With the league title already secured, Kompany could make wholesale changes to his starting XI.
Jonas Urbig, Kim Min-jae, Leon Goretzka and Nicolas Jackson are among those who started Bayern's last league game, a 3-3 home draw with Heidenheim last week, and all four are expected to come back in to the lineup on Saturday.
Don't rule out Michael Olise and Harry Kane starting, though, as they chase more goals and assists.
Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Predicted Lineups
- Wolfsburg: Grabara; Belocian, Vavro, Koulierakis; Kumbedi, Wimmer, Vini Souza, Eriksen, Maehle; Daghim, Pejcinovic
- Bayern Munich: Urbig; Guerreiro, Kim, Ito, Davies; Ndiaye, Goretzka; Olise, Kane, Bischof; Jackson
Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Odds
Wolfsburg, winless at home since January 14, are 16/5, or a 23.8% chance, to beat Bayern Munich for the first time since January 2016, when Bas Dost and Kevin De Bruyne both bagged braces. The visitors, meanwhile, are 4/6 to claim all three points, implying a 60% probability of success, with the draw offered at 7/2.
Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Stats
- SVW's last three games have gone under 1.5 first-half goals
- Jackson (FCB) has scored in five of his last six club starts
- Wimmer (SVW) is averaging 1.9 tackles p/g in 25/26 Bundesliga (recorded six last weekend)
First Half Total Goals 2-Way - Under 1.5 @ 1/1
Sitting six points behind 15th-placed Werder Bremen with just two rounds of fixtures remaining, Wolfsburg's chances of escaping the bottom three are slim.
However, they are three points ahead of league dwellers Heidenheim and have a much superior goal difference to St Pauli, who are level on 26 points.
Wolfsburg, then, will be keen to keep hold of their relegation play-off place, which would mean an end-of-season tie with a 2. Bundesliga club.
A point wouldn't be a bad result for Wolfsburg on Saturday, particularly with St Pauli facing a tricky trip to Champions League-chasing RB Leipzig earlier in the day, so I'm expecting Hecking's side to try and grind out a result here.
They've done well in that regard recently, beating Union Berlin 2-1 away before drawing at home to Borussia Monchengladbach (0-0) and away to Freiburg (1-1), conceding just twice across those three games.
Just a single first-half goal was struck in their win over Union, while their back-to-back draws with Gladbach and Freiburg failed to see a goal before the interval.
Bayern are several classes above the aforementioned three teams, but they're likely to start with their second string on Saturday, which could mean a lack of fluency, particularly in the final third.
Kompany's charges hammered Wolfsburg 8-1 in January's reverse fixture, but the score was only 2-1 at half-time, and they've started their last two league games slowly, going 3-0 down at half-time of their 4-3 win at Mainz and 2-1 down in their 3-3 home draw with Heidenheim last weekend.
Bayern's class should shine through in the second half, but I'm backing the relegation-threatened hosts to make things tough for the visitors in the first half.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Bet Builder - Nicolas Jackson (FCB) Anytime Goalscorer & Patrick Wimmer (WOB) 2+ Tackles @ 21/10
Jackson has had to play second fiddle to Kane this season, but like in last Saturday's 3-3 draw with Heidenheim, he should be handed another chance to impress from the start this weekend.
The 24-year-old failed to fire against Heidenheim, but had scored in his previous five starts, with his strike against Mainz last month taking him to 10 for the season and seven in the Bundesliga.
Jackson was on AFCON duty with Senegal for Bayern's annihilation of Wolfsburg in January, so he'll be looking to feast in the reverse fixture.
I'm also backing Wolfsburg's Patrick Wimmer to make at least two tackles.
The 24-year-old is averaging 1.9 tackles per game in this season's Bundesliga, and against Freiburg last Sunday, he recorded a whopping six.
Wimmer has now registered 2+ tackles in four of his last five appearances, and looks well placed to make it five from six on Saturday.
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