St Pauli vs Koln Prediction: Ragnar to prove a real Ache in the backside

The Bundesliga’s Friday night fixture (19:30 BST, BBC iPlayer) is a big one, as two relegation-threatened clubs, FC St. Pauli (16th) and 1. FC Koln (13th), do battle at the former’s Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg, with just five points separating the sides.

Below are my St Pauli vs Koln predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Joel Fujita is suspended for St Pauli after picking up his fifth yellow card of the campaign in last weekend's defeat to Bayern Munich.

Ricky-Jade Jones, James Sands (both ankle) and Eric Smith (unspecified) could all miss Friday's fixture due to injury.

Football Odds

Timo Hubers and Luca Kilian (both knee) are both sidelined for Koln.

St Pauli vs Koln Odds

St Pauli are 8/5 to win, implying a 38.5% probability of success, while Koln are 7/4, or a 36.4% chance, with the draw offered at 9/4.

Betfred's Price Boost is Both Teams to Score in Both Halves at 16/1 (was 12/1).

Both Teams to Score - Yes @ 5/6

Koln and St Pauli rank at opposite ends of the Bundesliga’s BTTS table, with the former joint-top, having seen both teams score in 76% of their league games this season, while the latter are joint-15th with 52%, rising slightly to 57% on home soil.

St Pauli were hit for five without reply at home to Bayern Munich last weekend, but had scored in their previous two games, a 1-1 draw at Union Berlin and a 2-1 home defeat to SC Freiburg.

Sitting three points behind 16th-placed Werder Bremen, who occupy the Bundesliga’s final survival spot, with five rounds of fixtures remaining, St Pauli can’t afford to keep dropping points, and sooner or later, they need to start winning, and Friday’s match is arguably their most winnable game of the five.

Today's Football Fixtures

As a result, and considering they are at home, in front of an expectant crowd, I expect to see St Pauli going all out for the win, which should help them score, but also create more chances for the visitors.

Despite sitting 13th, Koln are the league’s eighth-highest scoring side with 43 goals, netting eight times across their last three games, and BTTS-Yes has struck in eight of their last nine, including all five since the start of March.

Both teams to score has been a winning bet in seven of Koln’s last nine Bundesliga away games, too, while December’s reverse fixture with St Pauli ended in a 1-1 draw at RheinEnergieStadion.

Anytime Goalscorer - Ragnar Ache (KOE) @ 23/10

Koln striker Ragnar Ache has scored seven goals in 28 Bundesliga appearances this season, despite starting just 17 times. He's also scored once in the DFB-Pokal, against Bayern in October.

The 27-year-old has struck four times across his last eight games, netting twice in his last three, so he should be full of confidence heading into Friday's fixture against a side that shipped five goals last weekend.

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