St Pauli vs Hamburger SV Prediction: Red mist to descend again on derby day

We've got a Hamburg derby to look forward to in the Bundesliga this Friday (19:30 GMT, BBC iPlayer) as St Pauli host Hamburger SV at Millerntor-Stadion. Die Rothosen have dominated this fixture since the first head-to-head in 1919, winning 70 of the 112 meetings (D17, L25), but they were beaten 2-0 at Volsparkstadion in August's reverse game.

Below are my St Pauli vs Hamburger SV predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Team News

St Pauli captain Jackson Irvine has missed his side's last two games with a foot injury, but head coach Alexander Blessin hasn't ruled out the Australian midfielder returning to action on Friday night.

However, Andreas Hountondji (ankle), Connor Metcalfe (knee) and David Nemeth (groin) all look set to miss out for Kiezkicker.

Football Odds

As for Hamburg, Yussuf Poulsen remains sidelined with an ankle injury.

Merlin Polzin could make changes to his starting XI after last Saturday's goalless draw at home to Borussia Monchengladbach extended their winless run to six games in all competitions.

Rayan Philippe, Giorgi Gocholeishvili and Robert Glatzel are among those eyeing promotions from the substitutes bench.

St Pauli vs Hamburger SV Odds

St Pauli are 8/5, or a 38.5% chance, to do the double over their rivals, with Hamburg 9/5 (35.7%) to exact their revenge, and the draw offered at 21/10.

Betfred are offering a couple of Price Boosts on this derby, including Fabio Vieira To Score At Anytime at 7/2 (was 3/1).

Booking Points - 80+ @ 3/1

It was a feisty affair when these two rivals faced off at Volksparkstadion earlier in the season, with six yellow cards and one red card produced.

Gocholeishvili was sent off for two bookable offences, which totals 35 booking points with Betfred, and with the other four cautions worth 10 points each, there were 75 booking points handed out overall.

Hamburg are one of the most indisciplined teams in the Bundesliga this season, collecting the most reds (six) and 30 yellows in 17 games.

Today's Football Fixtures

St Pauli fare much better in that regard, picking up 29 yellows and just a single red, but their last competitive match at Millerntor-Stadion saw two of their players, James Sands and Arkadiusz Pyrka, cautioned, and one, Eric Smith, sent off, while Blessin was shown a yellow on the sidelines.

With both clubs in relegation trouble, particularly St Pauli, who are bottom of the Bundesliga and trail their neighbours by seven points, we shouldn't see either holding back on Friday.

As such, I believe we are in for a bucketload of bookings, which would help to land the 80+ line.

Red Card Yes/No - Yes @ 11/4

I've already spoken about Hamburg's poor disciplinary record this season, but it's probably useful to note that four of their six red cards have come away from home, too.

St Pauli's sole dimissal this term came relatively recently, in their last competitive home game, in fact, on December 13.

As you'd probably expect, there have been a few red cards in Hamburg derbies down the years, with four of the last eight, including August's meeting, producing one - three for Hamburg, one for St Pauli.

That's a 50% success rate, so at an implied probability of 26.7%, I'm happy to back a red card on Friday at 11/4.