RB Leipzig vs Freiburg Prediction: Goal for revved-up Grifo at Red Bull Arena

After ending 2025 with back-to-back defeats and seeing their first game of this calendar year postponed last weekend due to adverse weather conditions, RB Leipzig will be desperate to get up and running on Wednesday (19:30 GMT) when they take on SC Freiburg at the Red Bull Arena.

Below are my RB Leipzig vs Freiburg predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, as the visitors look to halve the six-point gap on their hosts.

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Team News

Such is his importance to the side, expect Yan Diomande, who scored six goals in 14 Bundesliga appearances for Leipzig before departing in mid-December for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, to be thrown straight back into the starting XI following Ivory Coast's elimination from the tournament last weekend.

Diomande's return is particularly important as fellow winger Johan Bakayoko is still sidelined with a calf injury.

Viggo Gebel, Assan Ouedraogo (both knee), Benjamin Henrichs (Achilles), Ezechiel Banzuzi (muscle) and Antonio Nusa (ankle) are all likely to miss out, too.

Football Odds

Philipp Lienhart (unspecified) is doubtful after being withdrawn at half-time of Saturday's 2-1 victory over Hamburger SV, while Eren Dinkci and Max Rosenfelder are both suffering from muscle injuries and are expected to sit out again on Wednesday.

RB Leipzig vs Freiburg Odds

Leipzig won last season's corresponding fixture 3-1 in March 2025, and Die Roten Bullen are 8/11 favourites to claim all three points again on Wednesday, implying a 57.9% probability of success. Freiburg are 10/3, or a 23.1% chance, to record a third consecutive victory, having ended last year with a 4-3 win at VfL Wolfsburg before beginning 2026 with a 2-1 success over Hamburger SV last Saturday.

The draw is priced at 3/1, both teams to score at 8/15, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/7.

Player to Receive a Card - Christoph Baumgartner (RBL) @ 11/4

At the time of writing, only three players have committed more fouls in this season's Bundesliga than Leipzig midfielder Christoph Baumgartner (25), who is averaging 1.9 per 90 minutes.

The 26-year-old, who was shown five yellow cards in 31 league appearances last season for Die Roten Bullen, has already been cautioned four times in 2025/26, last going into the book during his side's goalless draw at Borussia Monchengladbach on November 28.

Today's Football Fixtures

On Wednesday, the Austria international could come into close contact with Freiburg rising star Johan Manzambi, who has been fouled 41 times in this season's Bundesliga, eight more than anyone else.

The 20-year-old, who does most of his work on the left-hand side of the middle third, is averaging 3.3 fouls won per 90.

Anytime Goalscorer - Vincenzo Grifo (SCF) @ 5/2

Freiburg forward Vinzenzo Grifo has scored nine goals in 24 appearances this season, including six in 16 Bundesliga games (11 starts).

Admittedly, four of his six league strikes this term have come from the penalty spot, and Leipzig are the only side yet to concede a spot-kick in 2025/26, but the 32-year-old has shown himself to be effective from other areas of the pitch, too, as evidenced by his competition career tally of 72 goals and 67 assists across 289 competition games.

At 5/2, I'm seeing value in backing the Italian to score against a side that have shipped three goals in each of their last two matches.