Mainz 05 vs Hoffenheim Prediction: Strong travellers to overpower anxious hosts

Hoffenheim go in search of a fifth consecutive Bundesliga win on Friday (19:30 GMT, BBC iPlayer) when they take on a confidence-hit Mainz 05 side whose sole league victory this season came on September 20.

Below are my Mainz 05 vs Hoffenheim predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this German top-flight fixture at Mewa Arena.

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Team News

Nadiem Amiri, who has scored three goals and provided one assist for Mainz in 10 Bundesliga appearances this season, was initially a doubt for Friday's fixture after pulling out of Germany's squad last week with an adductor injury, but the 29-year-old has declared himself fit and is set to start at Mewa Arena.

Maxim Dal (knee) and Anthony Caci (hamstring) are certain absentees for the home side.

Football Odds

As for Hoffenheim, Koko Machida (knee) continues to miss out, while Adam Hlozek (foot) and Valentin Gendrey (ankle) also look likely to remain on the sidelines.

Mainz vs Hoffenheim Odds

Mainz are 14 points behind their next opponents in the table, yet they are slight favourites to win on Friday, with odds of 6/4 implying a 40% probability of success, with Hoffenheim priced at 7/4 (36.4%), and the draw available at 5/2.

Betfred are offering a couple of Price Boosts for this game, including visiting forward Andre Kramaric To Score The First Goal at 13/2 (was 11/2).

Match Result - Hoffenheim @ 7/4

This price looks a little too large to ignore.

Only reigning champions and current leaders Bayern Munich (also 13) have collected as many points away from home in this season’s Bundesliga as Hoffenheim, who have played a game fewer on their travels than Borussia Dortmund (11) and RB Leipzig (10), who have the third and fourth-best away records, respectively.

Three of Hoffenheim’s four away wins have come at sides currently in the bottom half, as they went to Union Berlin, St. Pauli and Wolfsburg and won 4-2, 3-0 and 3-2, respectively.

However, they also pitched up at the home of the 2023/24 champions Bayer Leverkusen and triumphed 2-1, while their only dropped points away from home came in a 1-1 draw at Freiburg, who finished fifth last season.

Today's Football Fixtures

Mainz, meanwhile, have picked up just five points from 10 games, winning just once, drawing twice, and losing seven times; only Heidenheim (also five) have picked up as few points.

Bo Henriksen’s Mainz side, though, are holders of the worst home record in the Bundesliga, picking up just a single point from their first five league matches at Mewa Arena.

Mainz will surely get their act together soon, and a 2-1 home victory over Fiorentina in the Uefa Conference League earlier this month hinted that a domestic recovery isn't too far away.

However, giving the generous odds on an away win here, I have to back an in-form Hoffenheim for all three points.

Anytime Goalscorer - Tim Lemperle (TSG) @ 2/1

Again, this is a price that jumps out to me.

Hoffenheim forward Tim Lemperle enjoyed a strong 2024/25 season in the 2. Bundesliga with FC Koln, netting 10 times in 25 appearances before sealing a switch to the top flight, where he has made a bright start this term.

The 23-year-old has scored four goals in his first nine league games, including two in his last three.

His latest effort came in Hoffenheim’s last match, a 3-1 victory over RB Leipzig on November 8, and, averaging 1.7 shots per game, he’s clearly not afraid to try his luck.

Mainz haven’t kept a single clean sheet in the Bundesliga this season, and Lemperle will be licking his lips at the opportunity to add to his tally on Friday.