Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction: Goals and a slight surprise?

Hamburg host Bayer Leverkusen at the Volksparkstadion on Tuesday night (19:30 GMT), looking to take themselves further away from the relegation zone. They sit four points clear of St Pauli, but they have played a game more than their relegation rivals. 

Bayer Leverkusen are clinging onto their place in the top four, and below you can find my Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen predictions. 

Team News

Hamburg have been fighting a sickness bug over the last week, with Emir Sahiti, Fabio Balde, Rayan Philippe and Anssi Suhonen amongst a number of players taken ill. Strikers Yussuf Poulsen and Robert Glatzel are sidelined with injury so manager Merlin Polzin may choose to go with Ransford Konigsdorffer up front. 

Damion Downs may start in support of the striker having joined on loan from Southampton this window, while Arsenal loanee Fabio Vieria could play alongside him. Another name Gunners fans will be familiar with is Albert Sambi Lokonga, who should start with Nicolai Remberg in midfield. 

Leverkusen front man Patrik Schick is out with a muscle problem, while Eliesse Ben Seghir has reached the semi-finals of Afcon with host nation Morocco. Martin Terrier should play up front supported by former Southampton man (another one), Nathan Tella, and star boy Malik Tillman. 

England World Cup hopeful Jarell Quansah will feature in the back three, with Robert Andrich and Jeanuel Belocian - with Axel Tape-Kobrissa out of action with a muscle problem of his own. 

Football Odds

Today's Football Fixtures

​​Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Odds

Hamburg are priced at 23/10 to win this one, giving them an implied win probability of 30% ahead of this clash. Bayer Leverkusen are the favourites at 11/10, while a draw is priced at 13/5. 

Over 2.5 goals is 4/6, BTTS is 8/15 and Leverkusen at 7/2 to win to nil thanks to a Betfred Price Boost.

Over 3.5 goals @ 13/8

I’m here for goals in this game, given what we’ve seen from Hamburg at home. Now the stats don’t really support the home side here given only five of their 16 games have seen over 3.5 goals this season, but for the visitors we have a much higher hit rate, at 44%, with seven of their 16 having four goals or more. 

I’m slightly concerned about Bayer Leverkusen after they were taken apart by Stuttgart in their first game after the winter break, losing 4-1 at home. That means three of their last four in all competitions have seen over 3.5, while Hamburg have scored 13 in eight home games. I’ll back an open encounter, at a decent price. 

BTTS and Draw @ 16/5

I know on paper we should see an away win, and I can understand why they are the favourite here, but I am slightly taken aback by Stuttgart’s 4-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen last time out. Their away form is good having won four of seven on the road, but Hamburg have four wins and two draws from their eight home outings so far. 

Goals should be on the cards, BTTS has come in during three of the last four Leverkusen games, while Hamburg have seen BTTS in their last six in all competitions. I think parity may reign supreme in this one, with both teams finding the net. 

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