Bayer Leverkusen vs St Pauli Prediction: Hjulmand’s hosts can overcome handicap

St Pauli take a break from their Bundesliga relegation battle on Tuesday (19:45 GMT) as they face off against Bayer Leverkusen in the quarter-finals of the DFB-Pokal.

Below are my Bayer Leverkusen vs St Pauli predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this midweek cup tie at BayArena.

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Team News

Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper Mark Flekken (knee), who has missed his side's last four games, remains sidelined, so Janis Blaswich is set to make his first DFB-Pokal appearance of the season.

Nathan Tella (foot) and Eliesse Ben Seghir (ankle) also miss out for Kasper Hjulmand's team, while Christian Kofane, who assisted Malik Tillman's goal in Die Werkself's 3-1 win at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday before being substituted in the 72nd minute with an unspecified injury, is a doubt.

Football Odds

Andreas Hountondji (ankle), Connor Metcalfe (knee) and David Nemeth (groin) are out injured for Alexander Blessin's St Pauli, who lost 2-1 at Augsburg on Saturday.

Skipper Jackson Irivine, who has made three substitute appearances since returning from injury, will be targeting a first start since December 21.

Bayer Leverkusen vs St Pauli Odds

Bayer Leverkusen, who won 4-2 at Paderborn and 1-0 at Borussia Dortmund to reach the final eight of the competition, are 1/2 favourites to triumph in regulation time on Tuesday, implying a 66.7% probability of success.

St Pauli, who overcame Norderstedt (0-0) and Hoffenheim (2-2) on penalties before winning 2-1 at Borussia Monchengladbach to make the quarter-finals, are 5/1, or a 16.7% chance, to claim a victory in 90 minutes at BayArena.

Leverkusen and St Pauli are 2/9 and 3/1, respectively, in the To Win Tie market, while the draw, which would send the tie to a penalty shootout, is offered at 16/5.

Bayer Leverkusen to Win, Bayer Leverkusen Most Corners & St Pauli Most Cards has been boosted from 3/1 to 4/1 by Betfred.

Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 6/4

All three meetings between Leverkusen and St Pauli since the latter's promotion to the Bundesliga in 2024 have been feisty, with the first, a 2-1 win for Die Werkself in December of that year, ending with four yellow cards (40 booking points).

The reverse fixture in 2024/25, a 1-1 draw at Millerntor-Stadion in April 2025, saw five yellow cards (50 booking points) dished out, and in Leverkusen's 2-1 victory at the same venue last September, eight yellow cards (80 booking points) were produced, while Hjulmand was cautioned on the sidelines.

Today's Football Fixtures

In Leverkusen's first DFB-Pokal game at Paderborn this season, two yellows and one red, amounting to 45 booking points, were shown in regulation time, with three yellows (30 booking points) awarded in extra time, too, while there were five cautions (50 booking points) produced in their last-16 victory at Dortmund.

St Pauli, meanwhile, saw seven yellows (70 booking points) dished out in regulation time of their round-of-32 win against Hoffenheim, with another two (20 booking points) given in extra time.

Handicap +1 - Bayer Leverkusen -1 @ 11/8

Despite their travails this term, St Pauli have managed to be competitive in most games, with seven of their 12 losses, including all three this calendar year, coming by a one-goal margin.

However, as this is a cup tie, and they are the underdogs, St Pauli can afford to be more adventurous if they are a goal down, which I think they will be at some point, and that means more space for Leverkusen to exploit.

Die Werkself have won their last three games across all competitions, and both victories last week, against Villarreal (3-0) and Eintracht Frankfurt (1-3), were by a two-goal margin; in fact, eight of Leverkusen's last nine wins have been by two goals or more, so the home side look good on the -1 handicap here.