Brest vs PSV Prediction: Dutch side have upper hand on Les Pirates

Stade Brestois 29 made a brilliant start to their first-ever European campaign this season by taking 10 points from their first four Uefa Champions League games. Despite losing their last match, the French side remain in a strong position to, at the very least, qualify for the play-offs, but they face a strong opponent on Tuesday (20:00, TNT Sports 7) as PSV Eindhoven pitch up at the Stade de Roudourou.

Read on for my Brest vs PSV prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this league phase contest in Guingamp.

Team News

Brest head coach Eric Roy could make a few changes to the side that started last Friday's 3-1 defeat at Lille OSC with Romain Del Castillo, Edimilson Fernandes, Abdallah Sima and Jordan Amavi are all in with a shout of earning promotions from the substitutes bench.

However, Kenny Lala, Bradley Locko and Soumaila Coulibaly are all ruled out through injury, while Jonas Martin and Pierre Lees-Melou are both doubts after missing recent matches.

Ludovic Arorque, meanwhile, is suspended after receiving three yellow cards in Europe.

Football Odds

PSV remain without injured duo Sergino Dest and Fode Fofana but Dutch midfielder Jerdy Schouten, who missed eight games across October, November and December, made his return to the matchday squad in last Friday's 6-1 thrashing of FC Twente and could play his first minutes since October 19 on Tuesday.

Rick Karsdorp and Luuk de Jong started last Friday's Eredivisie encounter on the bench but both players could earn recalls to the starting XI in France.

Brest vs PSV Odds

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Brest are unbeaten in European competition in France having won against Sturm Graz (2-1) and drawn with Bayer Leverkusen (1-1) but are still underdogs on Tuesday, with odds of 100/30 for them to win giving Les Pirates an implied probability of 23.1%. Their visitors, meanwhile, are 8/11 favourites (57.9%), despite taking just a point from two away games (3-1 defeat v Juventus, 1-1 draw v Paris Saint-Germain).

A Tuesday stalemate between the two teams has been priced at 3/1, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 3.5 total goals at 13/8.

De Jong (13/10) heads the anytime goalscorer market with Sima (11/4) shortest priced for the hosts.

Double Chance & Both Teams to Score - Draw or PSV & Yes @ 1/1

PSV lost their opening league phase game 3-1 to Juventus in Turin but helped land a 13/5 Double Chance & BTTS pick in their second and most recent away outing in Paris as I successfully backed the Dutch side to avoid defeat against PSG.

I'm looking to emulate that achievement in France this week, this time in Guingamp, although the odds are much lower at 1/1 on Tuesday, which is fair enough as Brest did finish 15 points behind Ligue 1 champions PSG last season and possess a much inferior squad.

Still, Roy's side are no pushovers despite their fairly low standing in the French top flight this term as they sit 11th in the 18-team table.

Brest won their first two Champions League games in 2024/25, following up their 2-1 victory over Sturm Graz in Guingamp with a 4-0 thrashing of Red Bull Salzburg in Austria. A 1-1 draw at Leverkusen was another positive result before a 2-1 win over Sparta Prague in the Czech Republic really had Brest's name up in lights.

Unfortunately for Brest, their unbeaten run in Europe came to an end last time out as Barcelona brushed them aside 3-0 in Spain last month, but they are still 11th heading into match week six of the league phase and are probably one win away from clinching a play-off spot.

Claiming all three points may be just beyond them this week, however, with PSV embarking on a six-game win streak following their 3-2 defeat at Eredivisie rivals Ajax on November 2. Peter Bosz's side have scored 26 goals in that run and kept three clean sheets at the start of it, although they have conceded five times across their last three matches - twice to Shakhtar (3-2), twice to FC Utrecht (2-5) and once to Twente (6-1).

Brest, meanwhile, have scored in four of their last five games, only blanking against Barcelona, but they've also lost four of their previous five contests - scoring in three of those defeats.

Both teams have scored in 60 per cent (three) of Les Pirates' five league phase outings and 80 per cent (four) of PSV's five, so backing at least one goal on either side at the Stade de Roudourou feels like a wise decision.

Of course, the odds aren't particularly high for that single outcome, so adding in the double chance result on PSV helps us up to EVS. A draw isn't out of the question on Tuesday, but if there is to be a winner, I'd fancy the visitors considering their form and firepower.

Bet Builder - Hugo Magnetti (BRE) 1+ Fouls, Olivier Boscagli (PSV) 1+ Shots, PSV Over 3.5 Corners @ 3/1

My second tip is a three-legged Bet Builder, kicking off with Brest midfielder Hugo Magnetti to make at least one foul on Tuesday. The 26-year-old has featured in all five of the French side's league phase games so far, starting four times, and is averaging 1.6 fouls per game.

Magnetti has committed at least one foul in all four starts, making one v Sturm Graz, one v Salzburg, three v Leverkusen, and three v Barcelona. His foul numbers in the competition have risen from one in each of his first two starts to three in each of his last two, and with Malik Tilman (fouled 2.2 times per UCL game on average) likely to be starting in the opposition's midfield, the Frenchman looks a solid bet to concede at least one free-kick in Guingamp.

Up next is at least one shot for PSV centre-back Olivier Boscagli, who is averaging 0.8 shots per game in this season's Champions League and 0.9 shots per game in the 2024/25 Eredivisie.

Boscagli started off slowly in Europe, failing to register an attempt against either Juventus or Sporting, but has now taken at least one shot in his last three league phase games (one v PSG, one v Girona, two v Shakhtar).

The number of corners taken by PSV in those matches have certainly helped the 27-year-old Frenchman in that regard.

PSV won three corners in Paris before taking seven and 12 against Girona and Shakhtar at home, respectively.

Brest, meanwhile, have conceded over 3.5 corners in three of their five European outings (four v Salzburg, six v Leverkusen and four v Barcelona) while Sparta Prague (three) fell one short of four against them.

Offers

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