Brentford vs Southampton Prediction: Saints’ search for a first PL win set to continue

It's a battle of the red and white stripe sides at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday (15:00), although it will be Brentford adorning their usual colours as hosts, while visitors Southampton will be forced into a changed strip in west London.

Read below for my Brentford vs Southampton prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, as the Saints march in pursuit of their first Premier League point/s since securing promotion from the EFL Championship in May.

Team News

At the time of writing, there is no official confirmation about an Ivan Toney transfer, but the 28-year-old has been left out of all three Brentford matchday squads this season and looks bound for the Saudi Pro League with Al-Ahli.

The England international's replacement, Igor Thiago, who agreed to join in January but only made the move to England during the summer, is a long-term absentee with a knee injury, so Bryan Mbuemo and Yoane Wissa - who each struck in the Bees' 2-1 opening weekend victory over Crystal Palace - look set to lead the line together again.

There was bad news over Aaron Hickey earlier this week as it was revealed the Scottish full-back has suffered a setback in his recovery from the injury that has kept him out of action since last year, with the 22-year-old set to miss the rest of 2024, at the very least. Rico Henry and Josh Dasilva also remain sidelined.

Gustavo Nunes joined from Brazilian club Gremio on Tuesday but is likely to be eased into action, so may not be considered for selection at this point. Former Liverpool duo Sepp van den Berg and Fabio Carvalho made their full debuts in Wednesday's 1-0 Carabao Cup victory at Colchester United but could be demoted back to the substitutes bench this weekend.

Keane Lewis-Potter started in place of Kevin Schade in last Sunday's 2-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield and did his chances of retaining his place no harm by scoring the only goal of the game in midweek.

Football Odds

Southampton lost their first two Premier League games 1-0, away to Newcastle United and at home to Nottingham Forest, with head coach Russell Martin naming an unchanged starting XI for both.

The south coast side's 5-3 win at Cardiff City in the Carabao Cup second round on Wednesday may give the former Swansea City boss food for thought, however, particularly the two-goal performance of summer signing Cameron Archer, who will be eyeing up his first league start for the Saints on Saturday.

Portuguese midfielder Mateus Fernandes also marked his full debut with a strike against Cardiff and is another pushing for a start in west London, as is Chelsea loanee Lesley Ugochukwu, who impressed on his Saints bow in midweek.

Gavin Bazunu and Ross Stewart remain out injured for the visitors, who are waiting to hear if Aaron Ramsdale has been given Premier League approval to play at the weekend following his Friday switch from Arsenal. Should the England international be cleared, he is likely to replace Alex McCarthy between the sticks.

Brentford vs Southampton Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Brentford vs Southampton page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Brentford are 8/11 to record back-to-back wins at home, giving them an implied probability of 57.9%, while Southampton are 100/30, or a 23.1% chance, to claim their first Premier League victory since March 4, 2023.

The draw is available at 11/4, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 3.5 total goals at 13/8.

Mbuemo (9/2) is favourite to open the scoring, closely followed by strike partner Wissa (11/2), while Ben Brereton Diaz and Adam Armstrong (both 7/1) are considered Southampton's most likely to score first.

Double Chance & Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals - Brentford or Draw & Under 2.5 @ 6/4

If I was to choose a winner between Brentford and Southampton, I would opt for the former given they are an established Premier League outfit that are playing at home and have already beaten Crystal Palace at the Gtech this term.

However, I'm always wary of a side that hasn't picked up a point in their first couple of fixtures, as they are likely to be fired up to get one at the next available opportunity. For that reason, I'm erring on the side of caution with the double-chance result on Brentford.

To boost the odds, I'm adding in under 2.5 total goals, despite Saints' eight-goal thriller with Cardiff in midweek.

There has been just a single goal in Southampton's opening two Premier League contests, with Martin's side on the wrong end both times against Newcastle and Forest, while there were just two goals in Brentford's defeat at Anfield last Sunday.

Last season, 13 (34%) of Brentford's 38 Premier League matches finished with under 2.5 total goals, including six at the Gtech - four of which came in their last five home games, starting with a 1-1 draw with Manchester United on March 30. The Bees avoided defeat in all four.

Bet Builder - Nathan Collins 1+ Shots, Yukinari Sugawara 1+ Shots, Flynn Downes 2+ Fouls @ 5/1

This three-leg bet builder looks like a goer, too, starting with Brentford defender Nathan Collins taking at least one shot. The Republic of Ireland international only averaged 0.3 shots per game in the Premier League last season but is on 1.5 ahead of matchday three after having one effort saved against Palace and taking two shots - one of which was kept out by Alisson Becker - versus Liverpool.

The 23-year-old is a towering presence from set-pieces and should be making himself a nuisance in the Southampton penalty area on Saturday. Newcastle centre-back Fabian Schar recorded a shot against the Saints before being sent off before the half-hour mark while Forest's Nikola Milenkovic, playing the same position as Collins and Schar, took three shots against Martin's side last weekend, all from corner-kick situations.

The second leg involves a Southampton player - Japanese wing-back Yukinari Sugawara - taking a shot. The summer signing from AZ Alkmaar is yet to complete a full game for the Saints but mustered his first effort in red and white against Forest last Saturday, and his shot numbers from his time in the Netherlands are promising.

Sugawara averaged 0.9 shots per game in the 2022/23 Eredivisie campaign and upped that to 1.2 last season, scoring four times. With Martin deploying Sugawara and Kyle Walker-Peters as wing-backs, expect the duo to be heavily involved in their attacks this term.

Finally, I'm backing Saints midfielder Flynn Downes to commit at least two fouls at the Gtech. The 25-year-old, who joined permanently from West Ham United in the summer after a successful season-long loan spell in the Championship, made five fouls in his side's first fixture against Newcastle and was whistled once versus Forest, picking up a yellow against the latter.

Downes is a combative player, further evidenced by an average of 1.2 fouls per game in the second tier last season. Two concessions looks highly achievable away at Brentford this weekend.

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