Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction: Mac Allister to pay for crimes against Bees

Brentford went unbeaten in their opening eight Premier League games at the Gtech Community this season, dropping just two points before losing there to Nottingham Forest (0-2) and Arsenal (1-3). The Bees got their buzz back at home on Tuesday, however, coming from two goals down to draw 2-2 with reigning champions Manchester City.

Next up at the Gtech is the visit of league leaders Liverpool, who have drawn their last two contests in the competition. Below is my Brentford vs Liverpool prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this Saturday afternoon kick-off (15:00) in west London.

Team News

Brentford boss Thomas Frank has confirmed he has no fresh injury concerns ahead of the visit of Liverpool, but Kristoffer Ajer (ankle), Ethan Pinnock (thigh), Aaron Hickey (hamstring), Gustavo Nunes (back) and Josh Dasilva (knee) are all still sidelined.

Rico Henry made his first Premier League appearance of the season earlier in the week and he will hope for more minutes this weekend while Ben Mee, who returned to the Bees' squad against Man City following a three-game absence, is another defensive option available to Frank.

Football Odds

Liverpool head coach Arne Slot revealed on Friday that Portuguese attacker Diogo Jota, who came off the bench at the City Ground and scored an equaliser with his first touch to earn the Reds a 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest, is a doubt for Saturday's trip to west London after feeling "a little niggle" in Tuesday's game.

Fellow forward Luis Diaz is expected to be available, however, despite missing training on Thursday because of a sore throat. That leaves Joe Gomez (hamstring) as the only confirmed absentee this weekend.

Changes could be made to Slot's starting XI, though, with Conor Bradley, Kostas Tsimikas and Curtis Jones potential inclusions, while Darwin Nunez, back from a one-match suspension, could profit if Diaz is deemed too unwell to begin Saturday's game.

Brentford vs Liverpool Odds

Brentford have only beaten Liverpool once in their history, winning 3-1 at the Gtech in January 2023. The Bees are 6/1 to record a second-ever success against the Merseyside club on Saturday, giving Frank's side an implied probability of 14.3%, while the visitors are 4/9, or a 69.2% chance, to claim a fifth straight head-to-head victory, the last of which came in August's reverse fixture as a strike each from Diaz and Mohamed Salah earned Slot a first Anfield win.

There has only been one draw between these sides, in their first-ever meeting at the Gtech in September 2021 (3-3), and a second stalemate is priced at 4/1, with both teams to score available at 8/15.

Unsurprisingly, Salah (8/11) heads the anytime goalscorer market followed by teammates Nunez (11/10), Jota (23/20) and Diaz (13/10). Bryan Mbeumo (9/4) and Yoane Wissa (12/5), who have struck 13 and 11 times respectively in the Premier League this season, are first up in the market for the hosts.

Player to Receive a Card - Alexis Mac Allister (LIV) @ 11/4

Alexis Mac Allister's fifth booking of the league campaign in Liverpool's 3-3 draw with Newcastle United on December 4 saw the Argentine midfielder banned for their 2-2 draw with Fulham 10 days later, but since returning to the side in a 2-1 Carabao Cup quarter-final victory over Southampton on December 18, Mac Allister has avoided a card, managing to get through seven games (all competitions) without being scribbled into the referee's notebook.

The 26-year-old hasn't been shy to stick a boot in, though, committing at least two fouls in five Premier League matches since. He upended an opponent twice v Tottenham Hotspur, five times v Leicester City, three times v West Ham United, twice v Manchester United, and four times v Forest on Tuesday, averaging 3.2 fouls per game in that period.

Mac Allister can probably consider himself fortunate not to have been cautioned in the past month, particularly against Leicester and Forest after racking up the fouls which can often lead to a yellow for persistent fouls, if not for the severity of them.

Liverpool could find things tough at the Gtech on Saturday with Brentford losing just twice there in the league all season - both against sides in the top three (Forest and Arsenal). Despite the Gunners and the Tricky Trees coming out on top there recently, both clubs had to work for their win, and Forest received four yellows (two for midfielders), and Arsenal, two.

Mac Allister conceded three free-kicks against Brentford at Anfield in August and was lucky to escape without a booking in the corresponding fixture at the Gtech last season as he made five fouls. He has one career yellow against Brentford, picked up in his time at Brighton & Hove Albion, and at 11/4, he looks a good price to collect a second on Saturday following, by his standards, a long period without one.

Bet Builder - Both Teams to Score (Yes), Brentford Over 7.5 Shots, Yoane Wissa (BRE) 1+ Shots on Target, Brentford Over 2.5 Corners @ 11/4

Only Fulham (17) have been involved in more Premier League games this season where both teams have scored than Brentford (16 - level with Brighton), who have seen BTTS - Yes land in 76 per cent of their 21 matches. The number is even higher at home (91 per cent) where both contests this year, a 3-1 loss to Arsenal and 2-2 draw with Man City - have helped to bump up the figure again following the December 21 defeat to Forest, the one time this season in the Premier League that they haven't scored at the Gtech.

The Bees rarely have trouble scoring, especially at home, but keeping them out at the other end has been a major issue, evidenced by their failure to keep a clean sheet at home all season. That's music to the ears of Liverpool who have only blanked once in the Premier League under Slot - a 1-0 defeat to Forest in September.

Both teams to score has been a winner in all three meetings between the two teams in west London and I see no reason why that run ends this weekend.

The hosts will be respectful of Liverpool's position as league leaders but having seen the Reds falter slightly in recent weeks, dropping points to Manchester United and Forest, conceding 13 shots at home to the former, and losing 1-0 to Spurs in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final tie, Frank will send his troops out with the belief that they can trouble the visiting side's backline.

Brentford recorded 18 shots against City on Tuesday as they came back from two goals down to salvage a draw, and while it's fair to say that Pep Guardiola's team aren't at their usual levels, nor comparable to Liverpool at present, that's still an impressive total.

The Bees only managed five shots in their previous home game against Arsenal but their shot count against Liverpool at home in the last three-and-a-half years reads 15, 10 and 12. Of course, those three matches were with Liverpool under the tutelage of previous boss Jurgen Klopp, but many of the players in those games are still present and thus the insecurities could still be there, so over 7.5 shots looks more than achievable for Brentford on Saturday.

One of those shots could well be on target from Bees forward Wissa, who has been in superb form in front of goal this season. Two of his 11 Premier League strikes in 2024/25 have come in his last two games against Man City and Brentford, and the 28-year-old is averaging 1.2 shots on target in the competition.

Wissa has scored twice against Liverpool previously and he could cause some damage to the Reds this weekend, at least forcing a save from Brazilian shot-stopper Alisson Becker.

The final leg of this Bet Builder requires Brentford to take at least three corners, something they have managed to do in all but one of their home games this season, including in their last nine, the most recent three of which have been against sides in the top six.

The Bees took four corners in the reverse fixture at Anfield and over 2.5 Brentford corners has been a winning selection in four of the previous five meetings between the two teams.

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