Brentford vs Newcastle Prediction: Magpies to avoid final-day Bees sting

A 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford on Wednesday night has added huge jeopardy to Newcastle's trip to west London on Sunday when they take on Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium (KO, 16:00). The Magpies are currently seventh, which would still be enough to see them qualify for the Europa Conference League, but they are level on points with Manchester United and only ahead by virtue of a superior goal difference.

Read below for my Brentford vs Newcastle prediction, where you can also find out all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Ben Mee, Rico Henry, Aaron Hickey and Josh Dasilva have been long-term injury absentees for the Bees, who will not be able to welcome the quartet back before the end of the season.

Sandro Tonali is still serving a suspension for Newcastle, who will again be without the services of Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, Matt Targett, Lewis Miley and Joe Willock, but Callum Wilson, who has missed the last two matches, could come back into the squad.

Goalkeeper Nick Pope returned from a lengthy spell on the sidelines earlier this month but has watched on from the bench in the last three games, and may not make his Magpies return until next season.

Fabian Schar came off the bench in midweek after sitting out the two previous matches and is in contention to start at the heart of defence alongside Dan Burn, which would likely mean Emile Krafth drops out of the starting XI.

Kieran Trippier endured a difficult evening on his own return to the starting XI on Wednesday, but with Tino Livramento expected to miss out through injury again, the England international should get the chance to atone for his mistakes.

Brentford vs Newcastle Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Brentford vs Newcastle page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Sunday's hosts are 15/8 to end their 2023/24 campaign with three points, giving them an implied win probability of 34.8%, while the visitors can be backed at 5/4, or a 44.4% chance.

The draw is marketed at 11/4, both teams to score at 4/11, and over 3.5 goals at 10/11.

Draw or Newcastle & both teams to score @ 9/10

This is a very difficult game to predict. There is little riding on it for Brentford, who can only move up one place to 15th at best and cannot be leapfrogged in 16th.

Newcastle, meanwhile, must win to guarantee that they finish above Manchester United in seventh, which would be enough to secure Europa Conference League football next season. A victory could also send them to the Europa League, should Chelsea lose at home to AFC Bournemouth.

All the jeopardy lies with the Magpies, yet I'm not fully convinced that they can get the three points. It's their away form this term which has really let them down - only five clubs have picked up fewer points on their travels than their tally of 17 points from 18 games. Six of those points have been achieved since the start of last month, but one of those wins came at Burnley, who are 15 points behind Brentford.

A Wednesday night game at Old Trafford appeared to be the perfect opportunity for Newcastle to win back-to-back away matches in the league for just the second time this season, but they failed to capitalise on the troubles of Man United, and now they must match the Red Devils' result on the final day.

Eddie Howe's side can take confidence from the fact that they have beaten Brentford at the Gtech in both games they have played there since the Bees' promotion in 2021. Joelinton and Willock struck to secure a 2-0 victory in February 2022, while in April 2023, Ivan Toney's opener was cancelled out by a David Raya own goal before Alexander Isak found the winner.

Brentford are unbeaten in their last five at home, however, drawing to three top-10 sides - Chelsea, Man United and Brighton - in that run, and have kept three consecutive clean sheets there.

They've also lost just once in their last eight games - home or away - and have won three of their last five, including an impressive 2-1 victory at Bournemouth last week.

With the pressure off, and in front of their supporters on Sunday, I can see Brentford scoring at least once.

But I do think Newcastle have it in themselves to at least match the Bees in the goal count, and ensure they pick up at least a point in their quest for Europe.

Team with most booking points - Newcastle @ 7/4

Brentford sit seventh in the Premier League team yellow card table, with their players picking up a combined 85 bookings, which is 12 more than 14th-placed Newcastle, who have also received just a single red card compared to the Bees' two.

However, as previously mentioned, there is so much more riding on this game for the visitors, who will be in no mood for end-of-season fun. Howe's charges will want to get the job done, whichever way that is possible.

That could mean more of the 'dark arts' employed by the Magpies compared to their west London counterparts.

Newcastle's last five away games (in all competitions, from most recent) have seen them awarded 30, 20, 30, 20, and 30 booking points - the most recent three have seen them match the opposition's number, and in the other two they recorded the most.

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