Brazil vs Colombia Prediction: Ballon d’Or favourite to shine?

If you’re a football fan over the age of 25, the downfall of Brazil in recent years will not sit right. The nation that gave us Pele, Garrincha, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Rivaldo are now no longer top dogs, and their modern difficulties are summed up by this current qualifying campaign. Dorival Jr. is trying to get his side back on track, but they currently sit fifth in the Conmebol qualifying table. 

On Friday they host Colombia (00:45, Premier Sports 1) and below you can find my Brazil vs Colombia predictions featuring betting tips and team news. 

Team News

Brazil’s array of superstars are all here and present, with the Real Madrid trio of Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo and Endrick complimented by Barcelona’s Raphinha. The former Leeds man is enjoying a fine season and will hope for a start, while Joao Pedro and Savinho are the Premier League representatives in the front line. 

Nottingham Forest’s Murillo has been rewarded with a call-up for his excellent form, and he could make his debut in this one, while Newcastle United duo Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes are both included having lifted the Carabao Cup at the weekend. Alisson Becker didn’t play in that final but is in this squad and should start behind Arsenal’s Gabriel and PSG’s Marquinhos. 

Experienced goalkeepers David Ospina and Camilo Vargas are still involved in the Colombia squad, while Crystal Palace duo Daniel Munoz and Jefferson Lerma should play key roles. Santiago Arias, Yerry Mina, James Rodriguez, Juan Quintero and Jhon Cordoba are all on the wrong side of 30 so there is a feeling that this squad could do with a slight refresh.

On that note, former Aston Villa striker Jhon Duran should lead the line and he will be complemented by Liverpool winger Luis Diaz. There’s plenty of quality on show from both sides. 

Brazil vs Colombia Odds

Brazil are priced at 4/6 to win this one having gone unbeaten in their last four matches while Colombia are the outsiders at 4/1. That means Brazil have an implied win probability of 60% and a draw can be backed at 9/4. 

Over 2.5 goals has come in during two of Brazil’s last four games, and that is priced at 5/4 while BTTS is 11/10. Endrick is the favourite to score first at 5/1, with the 18-year-old having scored three goals for his nation to date. 

BTTS @ 11/10

Now this is a pick that offers value in my eyes simply based upon the amount of attacking quality on show. Both teams have scored in three of Brazil’s last four games, with the only exception to that being the 4-0 hammering of Peru back in October. Vinicius Jr. remains one of the best in the world, and when you combine in with the other stars tearing up La Liga, they should have more than enough to find the net against a Colombia outfit that has only kept one clean sheet in six since losing the Copa America 2024 final to Argentina. 

However, Diaz and Duran catch my eye for the visitors and I think they can also trouble a Brazil outfit that has not been dominating games in recent times. They’ve drawn 1-1 against both Uruguay and Venezuela in their last two outings and despite the talent at the back they’ve not been completely solid, so I’ll back Colombia to find the net as well. 

Football Odds

Raphinha to score first @ 11/2

The current favourite to win the Ballon d’Or. That’s how good Raphinha has been this season and I’m more than happy to put him forward as the first goalscorer given the sensational performances he has consistently been putting in this term. 

Although Vinicius Jr. and Endrick lead the way in terms of the betting, their numbers haven’t been all that impressive for the national team. Vini hasn’t scored since the Copa America and has just five goals in 38 Brazil appearances while Endrick has three in 13 but it still feels premature to call him the main man. 

Raphinha now has 10 goals in 31 for his nation, while he also scored twice in the World Cup qualifiers at the back end of last year. He’s also got 27 in 42 for Barca this term which is simply phenomenal, so let’s back one of the best in the world to open the scoring. 

Offers

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