Botafogo vs Quito Prediction: Hosts out for revenge in Rio de Janeiro

Botafogo made an awful start to their 2024 Copa Libertadores campaign, suffering back-to-back defeats to Junior and LDU Quito, but breathed life into their knockout stage qualification hopes with a 3-1 win over Universitario de Deportes on April 24 and are now just two points behind Group D leaders Junior.

Next up, the Brazilians face Quito at the Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos on Thursday (KO, 01:30) looking to avenge their 1-0 loss in Ecuador just under a month ago. Read below for my Botafogo vs Quito prediction ahead of this crunch clash in Rio de Janeiro.

Botafogo were 3-0 down inside the first 41 minutes in their Group D opener against Colombian outfit Junior and could only manage one goal in reply to lose the game 3-1 in Rio de Janeiro. Fogao then went down 1-0 in Quito courtesy of a fourth-minute Lisandro Alzugaray strike before getting their campaign back on track with a 3-1 win over Peruvian side Universitario de Deportes.

Carlos Eduardo struck a brace either side of a goal from Luiz Henrique to get the Brazilians on the board.

Despite sitting bottom, they are now just a point behind second-placed Quito, who drew 1-1 at Junior in their last group game but lost 2-1 in Lima to Universitario de Deportes in their opening match.

Team News

Last season's top goalscorer Tiquinho Soares picked up an injury inside the first 10 minutes of Botafogo's group game against Universitario de Deportes and was subsequently forced from the field. The 33-year-old has missed the last three matches and will be absent again on Thursday.

Pablo, Matheus Nascimento and former Manchester United right-back Rafael are also on the sidelines.

Marco Angulo hasn't played for Quito since being substituted early into their win over Botafogo last month and looks likely to miss out again here.

Match Odds

Botafogo are 3/5 to record back-to-back victories in Group D, giving them an implied win probability of 62.5%, while Quito are 4/1 - or a 20% chance - to do the double over their Brazilian opponents.

The draw can be backed at 13/5, both teams to score at 5/6 and over 2.5 goals at 9/4.

Botafogo to win & over 2.5 goals @ 6/4

Botafogo made a shocking start to their Copa Libertadores campaign, losing their first two matches, and their league seasons got off to a shaky start as they lost 3-2 to Cruizero on the opening day.

After those three defeats, however, Fogao enjoyed a five-game winning run which was only broken by Bahia on Sunday, who triumphed 2-1 at the Estadio Olimpico Nilson Santos.

That game was the fifth Botafogo game in nine since the start of April that has seen over 2.5 goals, and we could see a sixth in 10 on Thursday.

Quito lost 2-1 in their first group away game in Peru and were fortunate to escape with a 1-1 draw in Colombia last time out as Junior missed a second-half penalty with the scores level.

Botafogo's quality should shine through on home soil this time around, with Quito a much different prospect away from Ecuador.

Junior Santos first goalscorer @ 5/1

Junior Santos is currently leading the way in the 2024 Copa Libertadores goalscoring charts with eight in seven games so far, albeit all eight came in qualifying.

The 29-year-old found the net at least once in each leg against Aurora in February and Bragantino in March. Remarkably, he struck the opening goal in all four games.

He was closing to getting himself on the scoresheet last time out in this competition as he had an effort ruled out for offside in the early stages of Botafogo's 3-1 win over Universitario de Deportes.

Junior Santos is 9/5 to score anytime on Thursday, but considering his recording of opening the scoring - his last goal against Juventude on April 24 was also an opener - I like the 5/1 price for him to find the net first.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.