Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Prediction: Visitors are great value to win
Mainz 05 are having an outstanding season in the Bundesliga and with eight games left to play they are in a strong position to secure Champions League football for next season. They travel to face Borussia Dortmund, who are having a disappointing campaign by their standards, at Signal Iduna Park on Sunday (16:30, Sky Sports Football).
The Black and Yellows have lost two league games in a row ahead of this clash and they need a strong performance in the final weeks of the season to have a chance of any European football next term. Below you will find my Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 predictions, accompanied by the latest team news and match odds.
Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Betting Tips
Odds correct at the time of publishing
Team News
Dortmund are having to cope without a few players this weekend, including midfielder Marcel Sabitzer, who was withdrawn with an injury in the defeat to RB Leipzig before the international break.
Boss Niko Kovac is also short of options in that area of the field as Felix Nmecha is also sidelined. Also in the treatment room for the Black and Yellows are Filippo Mane, Marcel Lotka, Daniel Svensson and Cole Campbell.
Following two league defeats on the spin, Kovac may freshen up his side for the visit of Mainz, so we could see Ramy Bensebaini come into the defence. Jamie Bynoe-Gittens will be pushing for a recall in attack, potentially at the expense of Maximilian Beier.
Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Stats
- Mainz have the third-best away record in the Bundesliga
- Jonathan Burkardt (M05) has scored 15 goals in the Bundesliga
Mainz 05 were able to breathe a sigh of relief against SC Freiburg last time out as top scorer Jonathan Burkardt was fit to start, having been forced off in the previous game against Borussia Monchengladbach.
The attacker has 15 goals in the league and has played a pivotal role in the visitors' stunning campaign to date. Lee Jae-sung and Paul Nebel are expected to maintain their roles supporting the front man in attack, and all three of them were on the scoresheet in the reverse fixture at Mewa Arena, which Die Nullfunfer won 3-1.
They will be hoping for a similar scenario on Sunday to take them another step closer to Champions League football. Centre-back Stefan Bell (hamstring) is the main absentee due to injury.
Boss Bo Henriksen has a dilemma in Dortmund, though as another defender, Dominik Kohr, is unavailable due to suspension he picked up in the last game, so he may opt to deploy Andreas Hanche-Olsen in his stead.
Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Odds
Dortmund have lost their last two league games, while they have suffered two defeats in their latest three fixtures at home in the top flight. They are perceived as the 4/6 favourites here, though.
Mainz 05's last game saw them held to a draw with Freiburg and the stalemate is available at 3/1 on this occasion. The visitors are 4/1, which has a 20% chance, to collect what would be a fourth away win in a row in the Bundesliga.
Both teams to score has struck in Die Nullfunfer's past three matches in the league, while it also delivered in the game played between the two teams earlier in the campaign. BTTS is priced at 8/11 on this occasion.
Mainz 05 to win @ 4/1
I was surprised to see Mainz were priced so high to win this game, especially as they have won four of their past five fixtures in the league - three of which have come on their travels.
The visitors have been brilliant throughout the campaign and they do truly deserve to be in next season's Champions League for their efforts. It would take a huge lapse in concentration from them to stop that from becoming a reality and I think there is great value to be had in backing them to beat Dortmund.
The Black and Yellows are 11th in the table and have blown hot and cold throughout the season. Consistency has been a massive issue for them and their recent form does not bode well for their chances against the team with the third-best away record, who have already comfortably beat them this term.
Mainz 05 have the momentum and I can't see anything other than them winning this contest on Sunday.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Both teams to score @ 8/11
However, that does not mean that Dortmund don't have a role to play in this game. After all, they have only blanked in just one of their Bundesliga clashes at Signal Iduna Park this campaign, which did come last time out against FC Augsburg.
The hosts will not want this trend to extend to a second game, so I think BTTS could be a sensible selection here. This market has been a successful bet in Mainz 05's last three appearances in the top flight, while it was also a winning selection when the two teams met back in November.
Dortmund can certainly make sure that this game is not completely one-sided, and their attacking prowess on home turf cannot be overstated.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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