Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction: Alonso to get one over former teammate

After a three-week winter break, the Bundesliga returns with a bang this Friday (19:30, Sky Sports Main Event) as Borussia Dortmund host reigning champions Bayer Leverkusen at Signal Iduna Park. Seven points separate second-place Leverkusen and Dortmund in sixth with the former looking to close a four-point gap on Bayern Munich, who face a tough trip to Borussia Monchengladbach on Saturday evening.

Below is my Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, as former Real Madrid teammates Nuri Sahin and Xabi Alonso face off against each other for the first time as managers.

Team News

Dortmund have been hit hard by a flu virus this week with defenders Waldemar Anton and Almugera Kabar doubtful due to illness.

Niklas Sule and Pascal Gross are both ruled out due to injury and suspension respectively but Marcel Sabitzer, who missed Dortmund's final game of 2024, a 3-1 win at Wolfsburg on December 22, is back in training and could be an option from the bench at the very least.

Speculation continues to swirl around the future of Dutch winger Donyell Malen with Aston Villa reportedly leading the race for his signature this month, but head coach Sahin has confirmed that the 25-year-old, who opened the scoring in Wolfsburg last month, is in contention to start on Friday.

Football Odds

French defender Jeanuel Belocian played 63 minutes of Leverkusen's 2-0 friendly win over Oberhausen on Sunday but has since been ruled out for the rest of the season after scans revealed he had torn his ACL.

The 19-year-old joins Victor Boniface and Amine Adli in the treatment room, while it remains to be seen if Jonas Hofmann, who hasn't featured since Leverkusen's 1-1 draw at VFL Bochum on November 9, is fit enough to return to the squad.

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Odds

Dortmund haven't lost to Leverkusen since February 2022, beating Die Werkself home (1-0) and away (0-2) in 2022/23 before playing out a couple of 1-1 draws last season. Despite their four-game unbeaten record against Friday's visitors, Sahin's side are slight underdogs at 7/4 to claim victory this week, giving Die Borussen an implied win probability of 36.4%, while Alonso's charges are 7/5, or a 41.7% chance, to secure a sixth consecutive Bundesliga victory.

The draw is priced at 13/5, both teams to score at 4/9, and over 3.5 total goals at 11/8.

Leverkusen striker Patrik Schick, who has scored in his last six starts for the club, netting 12 times - including four in a 5-1 thrashing of Freiburg last time out - in that run, is 6/4 joint-favourite in the anytime goalscorer market alongside Dortmund centre-forward Serhou Guirassy.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Bayer Leverkusen & Yes @ 11/4

Leverkusen haven't run away with the Bundesliga title like they did last season when they went undefeated over 34 games, finishing 17 points ahead of runners-up Stuttgart and 18 ahead of traditional heavyweights Bayern. However, after an uncertain start, winning just four of their first 10 league matches, five of which ended in a draw, Alonso's side have started to click into gear, racking up five straight victories before the winter break.

B04 were in free-scoring mode at the end of last year, netting five times against Heidenheim (5-2) and Freiburg (5-1) either side of two strikes against Union Berlin (1-2), St. Pauli (2-1) and Augsburg (2-0) with Schick responsible for nearly half (seven) of that 16-goal haul.

As seen in those five scorelines, though, they've kept just one clean sheet in that run, and that came against 13th-placed Augsburg who are the division's fourth-lowest scorers; in fact, Leverkusen have recorded just two Bundesliga shutouts all seasons, the first of which came on November 1 against Stuttgart (0-0). That remains their only goalless draw of the campaign and they have scored in every other league outing while only Bayern (17) and Werder Bremen (16), who have both played one more away game than Die Werkself (15), have picked up more points on their travels.

Leverkusen have won their last three road matches in all competitions, beating Union Berlin and Augsburg either side of a DFB-Pokal victory over Bayern (0-1) at the Allianz Arena on December 3, so Friday's visitors will be quietly confident of taking all three points at Signal Iduna Park despite Dortmund's impressive record at the stadium this season.

Die Borussen have racked up 20 points from eight Bundesliga home games, only failing to beat Bayern and Hoffenheim in 1-1 draws. Crucially, though, those have been their last two home league matches, meaning they are now without a win in their last two at Signal Iduna Park - three including their Uefa Champions League defeat to Barcelona (2-3) on December 11.

Dortmund ended their three-game winless run in the league last time out at Wolfsburg but I have grave concerns over whether they can even avoid defeat to Leverkusen on Friday, let alone beat a side who finished 27 points ahead of them last season.

Leverkusen are hitting their stride at the right time and that spells serious danger for Sahin's side who have won just one of five games since beating Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 on November 27.

As previously discussed, though, I do fancy the home team to get on the scoresheet given Leverkusen's difficulties in defence this season. B04 top the Bundesliga BTTS table with both teams finding the net in 87 per cent (13) of their 15 matches while Dortmund, who have scored in all but one of their league games, are just behind on 80 per cent (12).

Both Teams to Score in First Half - Yes @ 5/2

I'm already backing both teams to score on Friday and seeing as Leverkusen top the 'BTTS in First Half' table, this is a selection that makes a lot of sense at the price offered.

Both teams have scored in the first half in 53 per cent (eight) of Leverkusen's Bundesliga matches this term while only Alonso's side, Stuttgart and Bremen (both 40 per cent - six) sit higher in that particular table than Dortmund (33 per cent - five).

Attack seems to be the best form of defence for both of these sides and thus I see an entertaining, end-to-end contest taking place at Signal Iduna Park, right from the off.

Leverkusen boast the division's most in-form attacker, Schick, up top, as well as 21-year-old German playmaker Florian Wirtz, who is looking to net in a fourth consecutive Bundesliga appearance.

Meanwhile, Dortmund's forward line will feature Guirassy, who bagged a brace against Barcelona last month, and five-goal winger Jamie Gittens, who has also struck four times in six Champions League contests this term.

There should be plenty of goals in this one, and I'm backing both teams to get at least one before the interval.

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