Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Prediction: Back Spanish giants in low-scorer

 | Friday 31st May 2024, 12:50pm

Friday 31st May 2024, 12:50pm

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The final club game of the campaign is set to take place on Saturday night, as Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid face-off to be crowned Champions League winners for the 23/24 season. You can view this match on TNT Sports 1 with kick-off set for 20:00.

Our Spanish Football expert Mark Sochon previews this one for us and has two odds-against selections for you as he takes us through his Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid predictions...

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Betting Tips

  • Real Madrid & Under 3.5 Goals @ 11/8
  • Jude Bellingham 1+ shots on target & Niclas Füllkrug 1+ shots on target @ 7/5 (Via #PickYourPunt)

Wembley is the setting for the 2023/24 Champions League Final on Saturday night, with Real Madrid strong favourites to win their 15th European Cup.

1997 winners Borussia Dortmund stand in their way and the Germans won’t mind the underdog tag one bit. They’ve grown accustomed to it throughout this season’s competition from as far back as the group stage when many expected them to fall at the first hurdle with PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle United their rivals in an incredibly tough Group F.

Edin Terzić’s side rose to the challenge though, losing just once, with victories at home and away to Premier League Newcastle helping them top the group with an impressive defensive record of just four goals conceded in six games.

PSV and Atlético Madrid were then dispatched in the knockout stage before Borussia met PSG once more in the Semi-Finals, with the Germans winning both legs 1-0 to seal an unexpected shot at European glory.

This after all is a Borussia Dortmund side that only finished 5th in this season’s Bundesliga, their lowest final position since Jürgen Klopp’s disappointing final campaign at Westfalenstadion almost a decade ago. They lost two of their final four league games but did round the season off a fortnight ago with a convincing 4-0 home win against Darmstadt and will take confidence from their ability to produce their best football on the European stage.

It’s a side without any genuine superstars following the sales of Erling Haaland and Jude Bellingham in successive summers, but it’s a squad that is brimming with players who are hungry and have plenty to prove, none more so than Manchester United loanee Jadon Sancho who has been a key factor in Borussia’s run to the Final.

Sancho, who has also been excluded from Gareth Southgate’s preliminary squad for Euro 2024, could silence all his doubters with a big performance in London this weekend but it’s another Englishman who will dominate the build-up to this game given his connections with both clubs.

Jude Bellingham is enjoying a stunning first season in Spain after spending three years with Dortmund. The 20-year-old has scored 23 times in all competitions for Los Blancos from an advanced midfield role and he comes up against his former club in the biggest match of his young career to date.

Los Blancos, who have lost just one of their 54 competitive matches inside 90 minutes this season, have high quality performers right across the pitch though with Toni Kroos and Fede Valverde both outstanding in midfield while forwards Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo will keep the Borussia Dortmund defence on its toes on Saturday.

Even a series of serious injuries at the back have not derailed things for Carlo Ancelotti’s side, with Antonio Rüdiger stepping up to be a genuine leader in defence in the absence of David Alaba and Éder Militão.

Real Madrid rarely make things easy for themselves in the Champions League though and that has been the case again this term with even RB Leipzig causing them problems throughout their Last 16 tie. They have an incredible knack for hanging on when they are under the cosh and scoring decisive late goals, with Joselu the unlikely hero against Bayern in the Semi-Final 2nd Leg as his 88th and 91st minute strikes turned the tie on its head at the Santiago Bernabéu.

They’d already won the Spanish title by that point and if there is anything to offer a bit of encouragement to Borussia Dortmund heading into this Final, it is the possibility that Real Madrid may be slightly undercooked having not played a truly meaningful match since the 2nd Leg against Bayern over three weeks ago.

Team News:

Real Madrid are missing Aurelien Tchouameni and David Alaba to injury, which limits their options in central defence. Éder Militão has struggled to convince since returning from an ACL injury during the final weeks of La Liga, so it’s expected to be Nacho alongside Rüdiger at the heart of the back four with the fit again Thibaut Courtois set to be preferred to Andriy Lunin in goal, even if the latter does recover from a bout of flu in time for the trip to London.

The rest of the team largely picks itself, with Ancelotti not expected to make any surprise calls. Toni Kroos will start his last ever game of club football while Jude Bellingham is expected to operate behind a front two of Rodrygo and Vinícius Júnior.

As for Borussia Dortmund, they are expected to be without injured duo Ramy Bensebaini and Julien Duranville. Striker Sébastien Haller is also a doubt, but Niclas Füllkrug is almost certain to be preferred up top in any case.

Julian Brandt is likely to return in place of Marco Reus in what may be the only change from the side that finished the Bundesliga season a fortnight ago in impressive fashion.

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Real Madrid are the 8/13 favourites to win the game in regulation time, with the Draw priced at 3/1 while Borussia Dortmund are on offer at 9/2.

It has been another entertaining run to the Final for Los Blancos and you can back Both Teams to Score at 8/11 here, a winning bet in each of their last four Champions League matches.

Borussia Dortmund have been keeping it quite tight in Europe though, with PSG firing blanks against them in the last round. If you see this being low scoring too, Under 2.5 Goals might appeal at 11/10 while Dortmund are priced at 5/1 to keep a clean sheet for the seventh time this season in the Champions League.

Real Madrid aren’t short on players who could break their resolve at any moment though. Vinícius Júnior, who scored the only goal in the 2022 Champions League Final against Liverpool, is the 7/2 favourite to score first, while he’s 5/4 to score anytime.

Jude Bellingham is priced at 7/5 to score anytime against his old club, while you can back the English duo to shine with Jude Bellingham and Jadon Sancho each to have 1+ shots on target available at 5/2 via a #PickYourPunt builder boost.

Bet 1 - Real Madrid & Under 3.5 Goals @ 11/8

Dortmund have done brilliantly to get this far, but they certainly rode their luck at times against PSG in the last round, with the French side firing in 44 attempts across the two legs without scoring.

In a challenging season on the domestic front, they’ve thrived on their underdog status in Europe, but Real Madrid are likely to prove a step-up in class on any of the sides they’ve faced so far in the competition.

The Spanish giants have won all of their last eight Finals and they are experts when it comes to negotiating big occasions and simply getting the job done. Borussia have shown themselves to be a tough side to break down in Europe so this might not be a cricket score, but I still expect it to be European Cup number 15 for the Spaniards and I’m backing Real Madrid and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/8.

Bet 2 - Jude Bellingham 1+ shots on target & Niclas Füllkrug 1+ shots on target @ 7/5

Bellingham has consistently risen to the big occasion this season, scoring in both Clásicos and he’s been excellent in the Champions League, scoring four and averaging 2.2 shots per game. He’s up against familiar foes here but it’s hard to see the Englishman being quiet given the kind of season he’s had.

Dortmund will be up against it, but they have still got the potential to cause problems on the flanks with Jadon Sancho and Karim Adeyemi. I can see them creating at least one clear opportunity for striker Niclas Füllkrug in this game.

The German averages 2.6 attempts per match in the Champions League so he’s getting plenty of efforts away and I’m using the #PickYourPunt builder to back Jude Bellingham 1+ shots on target & Niclas Füllkrug 1+ shots on target at 7/5 for my second bet.

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Football writers on our main Football home page... 

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