Bolton vs Oxford Prediction: Play-off final to go all the way

 | Friday 17th May 2024, 8:00am

Friday 17th May 2024, 8:00am

Bolton vs Oxford

Bolton Wanderers and Oxford United go head-to-head in the League 1 play-off final at Wembley Stadium on Saturday afternoon (Sky Sports Main Event, 16:15). Both sides have enjoyed fantastic campaigns in the third tier and have showed their class in their play-off semi-final triumphs over Barnsley and Peterborough United respectively.

On paper, this should be a very entertaining game of football, and both teams would be a worthy addition to the Championship next season. Below I have outlined my Bolton vs Oxford predictions, accompanied by match odds and team news. 

Bolton vs Oxford Betting Tips

Bolton vs Oxford Odds

Bolton are 5/6 to win this match in 90 minutes, giving them an implied probability of 54.5%. Oxford are priced at 11/4, which gives them a 26.7% chance of prevailing at Wembley in normal time. The draw can be backed at 12/5 (29.4%) if you believe that this game will be settled in extra time or penalties.

Both teams have scored in 54% (26/48) of Bolton's matches this season, as well as in 58% (28/48) of Oxford's. BTTS is on offer at 8/11 to land here on Saturday. Over 2.5 goals is available at 5/6.

Striker Dion Charles scored 16 goals in the regular season for Bolton, as well as two in the play-offs already. He is priced at 7/5 to score anytime against the U's and 4/1 to open the scoring.

Oxford's Mark Harris netted 15 goals this season and he is 5/2 to find the back of the net at Wembley.

Team News

Bolton's main injury concerns are Jon Dadi Bodvarsson and Carlos Mendes. Other than that, Ian Evatt has a fully-fit squad to choose from for this Wembley clash.

The Yellows have no fresh injury concerns heading into the weekend which will come as a huge boost to boss Des Buckingham.

Draw @ 12/5

I can't lie, this is a tough game to call but that is down to the quality both sides have. Oxford certainly raised a few eyebrows with how they defeated Peterborough and the manner in which they went about it, so it wouldn't be at all surprising to see them prevail over Bolton here.

The same goes for the Trotters. Although they endured a nervy finish to their tie with Barnsley they still managed five goals across the two games and their firepower will give Oxford a lot to think about, especially after they conceded five against them in their last meeting.

However, Bolton will be facing a much different side to the one they hammered and Oxford will be able to cause problems of their own. They will have seen that the Trotters are defensively vulnerable after conceding four against Barnsley, so there should no shortage of chances at either end.

That is why I feel confident in backing this game to end in a draw after 90 minutes. I believe that this will be a very competitive match and with the quality on both sides I can see them cancelling each other out and probably going the distance to a nervy penalty shoot-out.

Draw at 12/5 Over 3.5 goals @ 9/4

As already mentioned above, I'm expecting this League 1 play-off final to be a captivating affair, and one that should see no shortage of goals. I feel confident in backing over 3.5 goals because both sides are in excellent form and of course due to what is at stake.

This game may be on neutral territory but it is worth noting that four of Oxford's last trips on the road in the regular season saw a minimum of four goals scored. And over the course of the campaign, they scored 79 goals, while Bolton found the back of the net on 86 occasions.

There is going to be a lot of quality on display and a lot of eyes are going to be on the attackers who have enjoyed fruitful seasons in Charles, Harris and Aaron Collins. I can't see this final not ending up as some form of goal-fest.

Over 3.5 goals at 9/4 Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.


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