Bologna vs Monza Prediction: 5/2 shot backs goal-heavy trend to continue

After the elation of securing just their second Serie A win of the season on Monday, Monza will look to build some momentum when they travel to the Renato dall’Ara to face Bologna on Saturday (15:00 local, 14:00 GMT).

The basement side are up against a Rossoblu outfit who have stumbled of late after a great run through the autumn. Read on for my Bologna vs Monza predictions, complete with full preview and match odds.

Team News

The best news for Bologna heading into Saturday’s clash is the return from suspension of centre-back Jhon Lucumi after he sat out Wednesday night’s 2-2 draw with Inter Milan at San Siro.

Nicolo Cambiaghi (ACL) and Oussama El Azzouzi (hernia) are moving back into contention after missing lengthy periods through injury, while Juan Miranda and Lewis Ferguson could get starting shirts having both been substitutes at the Meazza in midweek.

Michel Aebischer remains absent with hernia trouble which has ruled him out of the last three months of action.

For Monza boss Salvatore Bocchetti there will be a temptation not to change too much after the 2-1 win over Fiorentina in only his third game in charge.

However, at least one alteration will be enforced, with Pedro Pereira banned for an accumulation of yellow cards. Danilo D’Ambrosio, on the other hand, is now available again after his own ban.

Skipper Pablo Mari will have to wait on a late check to see whether he can overcome a thigh issue which saw him replaced at half-time on Monday, while Bocchetti is definitely without Samuele Birindelli (muscle), Matteo Pessina (thigh), Roberto Gagliardini (thigh), Luca Caldirola (leg) and Dany Mota (plantar fasciitis).

Better news is that new signing Stefan Lekovic could debut.

Bologna vs Monza Odds

Betfred’s odds-makers are not being swayed completely by one Monza result, with Bologna heavy 4/7 favourites despite them being without a win in their last three and having won only four of 13 home matches in all competitions this term.

Monza are 9/2 for the win, which implies an 18.2% probability of them recording a second straight success, but there could be serious value in the draw at 11/4.

The price implies a 26.7% shot, but with the Rossoblu having drawn six of 13 at the Dall’Ara (that’s 46.2%) and Monza looking that bit more durable under Bocchetti so far, you may fancy that offer.

All of Monza’s last six games have finished 2-1 (five such defeats before Monday’s win), so a correct score dig at the same result in a home win at 7/1 looks good for the punter.

Over 3.5 goals @ 5/2

Yes, Monza’s last half-a-dozen games have all had exactly three goals, but that curiosity has to end soon. And, as the home side, I expect Bologna to drive the narrative of this one.

To that end, looking at the Rossoblu’s recent run which has seen them score exactly twice in each of their last four and compete in three straight matches of four-plus goals (a 3-2 home loss to Verona and 2-2 draws with both Roma and Inter), I can see goals again on Saturday.

The ’over 2.5’ might be the safer bet at 10/11, given the evidence from both sides of late, and you’re welcome to pick that up at an implied 52.4% chance. But in my search for a bit more value I’m counting on Bologna retaining that sense of adventure while also offering enough opportunities to make this one a goal-heavy clash.

Monza looked like a much different side on Monday to the one that had so often started slowly under Alessandro Nesta before the legendary former defender’s departure. So I can see this being more nip-and-tuck than some might suggest on the face of it.

The 5/2 Betfred are offering on over 3.5 goals implies a 28.6% probability, yet Bologna have been involved in seven such fixtures so far at a rate of 36.9%. Good old maths.

Football Odds

Bologna to score in both halves @ 8/5

There’s been a bit of a trend in Bologna’s games against bottom-six opposition this season. In four of their six matches with sides currently sat 15th or lower, Vincenzo Italiano’s side have picked up their adversaries for goals in either half four times.

Focus in on their three matches against bottom-three sides, and they have scored either side of the break every single time.

In fact, of the 11 times in 19 Serie A games this term that they have scored more than once, they have netted in both halves on eight occasions. That accounts for 42.1% of their fixtures, and 72.7% of the matches in which they’ve scored multiple goals.

Compare that with the 8/5 odds from Betfred at an implied probability of 38.5%, and you’re getting a statistical leg-up either way you look at it. And if you’re as confident as I am that the home side score two or more, then you’re getting incredible value.

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