Blackburn vs Derby Prediction: Predicted strugglers happy with a point

The Championship returns on Friday night, with two games kicking off at 8:00pm. Here, we have previewed the clash between Blackburn Rovers and newly promoted Derby County from Ewood Park.

Read below for my Blackburn vs Derby prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this opener in East Lancashire. 

Football Odds

Team News

Rovers may technically still own last season's Championship leading scorer Sammie Szmodics, but it appears a matter of when, not if, he will leave Ewood Park, with Ipswich keen suitors for his services. He hasn't featured in pre-season for Blackburn, so it would be a huge shock to see him turn out on Friday evening.

Blackburn will likely start a similar XI to the one that lined up against Stockport County in their last friendly a week ago and the big decision for John Eustace appears to be who to start in attack - Makhtar Gueye or Yuki Ohashi - both recent summer signings. Fellow incoming transfers, Danny Batth and Andi Weimann, look unlikely to make the squad here, as they also didn't play against the Hatters on Friday.

As for County, Paul Warne is without Corey Blackett-Taylor, Jake Rooney and Joe Ward due to injury and he could mark his 100th match in charge of the Midlands club by handing Callum Elder, Ben Osborn, David Ozoh and Kenzo Goudmijn their full Rams debuts.

Blackburn vs Derby Odds

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Blackburn are a slight 13/10 favourite to kick off their 2024/25 campaign with a victory on home soil, giving them an implied win probability of 43%, while the visitors are slightly longer at 21/10, or a 32% chance.

The draw can be backed at 12/5, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 5/6.

Under 2.5 goals @ 5/6

Blackburn were extremely fortunate to escape the drop last season and there have been a lot of predictions of them struggling again this term. Without the prolific Szmodics to dig them out of the proverbial mess they could get themselves into, it looks like another bleak campaign at Ewood.

Similarly, Derby and Warne will be more than happy to escape the relegation bottom three and with that in mind I can see this opener being a cagey affair from both sides.

Both under and over 2.5 goals are priced at the 5/6 mark and of those two options, I'd definitely err towards the former. In their last three pre-season friendlies over 2.5 goals hasn't hit once and there have only been five goals scored in those three fixtures.

County have had a fairly high-scoring pre-season but they will set up much more defensively here surely and would be more than happy to leave Lancashire with a point.

Match result - Draw @ 12/5

Similar to above, I think both Eustace and Warne would be fairly happy with an opening point and to settle the nerves of opening day. Rovers are in a period of transition and upheaval right now due to financial issues and the ongoing Szmodics transfer saga, whilst Warne and Derby are just trying to find their feet again in the Championship and will be desperate to avoid any early season beatings and an immediate drop to the foot of the table.

Expect a tight, tense, turgid affair at Ewood on Friday night.

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