Birmingham vs Rotherham Prediction: Blues’ strong home form to continue

Birmingham City sealed an important victory in their quest for promotion from League 1 on Tuesday by defeating rivals Huddersfield Town 1-0 at the John Smith's Stadium. A sumptuous Keshi Anderson strike was the difference and the Blues are now eight points clear of third-placed Wrexham with two games in hand. They host Rotherham United at St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park on Saturday (15:00) in their next fixture.

The Millers have been in decent form of late, losing just one of their last seven contests in the third tier. Read on for my Birmingham vs Rotherham prediction, featuring the latest team news and match odds.

Birmingham vs Rotherham Odds

Birmingham are yet to be beaten at St Andrew's this season in all competitions and have won four of the last five here in League 1. They are 4/7 to take the three points on Saturday.

If you seek better value, backing the Blues to win to nil at 11/8 (which has an implied probability of 42.1%) is attractive because each of their previous six victories in the third tier have seen them keep a clean sheet.

Three of their six latest appearances in the league have ended in a stalemate, which is on offer at 3/1 in B9. Rotherham have triumphed in four of their last six matches in the league, and are 5/1 to inflict a first defeat at home upon Birmingham.

The hosts are unbeaten in 12 games in League 1, and have kept nine clean sheets along the way. They are 1/1 (50%) to record another shutout on Saturday.

Football Odds

Team News

Despite Birmingham's favourable position, they are dealing with a number of injuries to key players. Full-back Lee Buchanan, who had missed most of the season due to a calf issue, sustained a severe knee problem which made his return brief. He has since been ruled out for the rest of the campaign and had to undergo surgery.

Willum Willumsson and Paik Seung-ho are out with unspecified issues, limiting the Blues' options in midfield. Defensive midfielder Tomoki Iwata returned at Huddersfield in midweek but was forced off with an ankle injury following a reckless challenge by Jonathan Hogg. Emil Hansson is still recovering from a muscle issue.

After a strong performance in Yorkshire, boss Chris Davies will be tempted to name the same XI (if Iwata is okay to play) against Rotherham. Rangers loanee Kieran Dowell made his debut on Tuesday from the bench, and he will be pushing to make his first start when the Millers come to town.

Rotherham travel to the West Midlands with two concerns surrounding forward Jonson Clarke Harris (calf) and Alex MacDonald (hip).

Speaking of the Millers' front man ahead of the Birmingham clash, manager Steve Evans said: "It's day by day with Jonno [Clarke-Harris].

"We can't have him coming back too early and his calf strain becomes a calf pull.

Birmingham to win to nil @ 11/8

Birmingham have the best defensive record in League 1, conceding just 18 goals in 26 games (average of 0.69 per match), and only six have come on home soil. St Andrew's has been a fortress and the last goal they conceded here came against Northampton Town on November 9.

There have been five league fixtures played here since, and their back line have risen to every occasion. The Blues are on a run of nine clean sheets in their last 12 outings in the third tier (home and away), with the centre-back pairing of Christoph Klarer and Ben Davies deserving huge credit during this period.

The hosts have won 18 matches in League 1 so far, and 11 of those have seen them prevail without conceding, which amounts to 61 per cent of their total. One of them did come against Rotherham United in the reverse meeting back in September, which ended 2-0.

Rotherham head to B9 with some decent form but they are going to find clear-cut chances hard to come by against the best defence in the division, and Birmingham are finding ways to win without always blowing their opponents away.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5

Touching on that last point, there have been many wins for Birmingham that have been by a narrow margin. Of their 18 wins to date, 10 of them have featured two goals or less in the match, including seven of their last nine.

Despite all their quality, we've not really seen Davies' men trounce anyone in League 1. The closest we've seen to that was a recent 3-0 scoreline at Wigan Athletic. Neutrals will feel like the big spenders should be racking up the goals weekly, but it isn't actually their style.

They keep the ball to control games and if they happen to bury most of the chances they create, then it's a bonus. In their current 12-game unbeaten streak, 10 of those matches have produced under 2.5 goals. This was also a successful bet when they played Rotherham back in September, which they won 2-0.

Offers

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