Football Bet of the Day: Paraguay & Mali to create more Group D drama in Paris

My most recent football bet of the day threw up a 13/8 winner on Saturday as Orlando City beat CF Montreal 4-1 in the Leagues Cup.

My next effort takes us to France on Tuesday (20:00, Discovery+/Eurosport 5) as Paraguay and Mali meet in a Group D decider at the Paris 2024 Olympics, and it's the South Americans who hold the advantage heading into this exciting encounter at the Parc des Princes.

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After a harrowing 5-0 defeat to Japan in their Olympic opener last Wednesday, Paraguay were at risk of being written off completely ahead of their second game against Israel on Saturday. Their thrashing at the hands of the Samurai Blues included a first-half red card shown to midfielder Wilder Vieira, who was subsequently banned for La Albirroja's next match.

However, Paraguay responded in fine fashion, beating Israel 4-2 in a thrilling contest at the Parc des Princes. Marcelo Fernandez opened the scoring in the 25th minute and the South Americans appeared to be in control at the interval.

Cue chaos as Omri Gandelman's 53rd-minute equaliser kicked off everything that followed. After Israel's Liel Abada had an effort struck off due to an offside, Brighton & Hove Albion's Julio Enciso put Paraguay back in the lead in the 69th minute before Oscar Gloukh scored a rebound from his own saved penalty 11 minutes later.

Paraguay's hopes of a vital victory looked to be over as the game began to tick into added time but they were given a lifeline with the eight minutes shown by the fourth official's board.

Fabian Balbuena proved to be the Paraguayan hero as he found the net in the third minute of added time before Fernandez put some gloss on the scoreline with his second of the match three minutes later.

The result put Paraguay up to second in the group following Japan's 1-0 win against Mali, who drew their Group D opener 1-1 with Israel. The Eagles have just a point to their name but are third due to a superior goal difference, though they must win on Tuesday to stand a chance of finishing as runners-up to Japan.

As such, I am expecting a big performance from Mali in Paris with three points a must. They've only scored once in the competition so far, two fewer than Israel and three fewer than Paraguay, but they've certainly been active in the final third of the pitch, firing 22 shots off in their first match and 16 in their second.

Mali had six shots on target against Israel and three against Japan, so they can't be accused of not troubling the goal.

Paraguay Olympic vs Mali Olympic Odds

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However, what Mali do need is to show a bit more quality than they have so far. That's easier said than done, especially considering the limitations of their squad; their front three of Thiemoko Diarra, Cheickna Doumbia and Brahima Diarra against Japan scored a combined four league goals last season.

They should be confident of getting some joy on Tuesday, though, against a Paraguayan outfit that shipped seven goals across four days last week.

Whether scoring once or twice will be enough to get the job is debatable considering the four their opponents put past Israel last time out.

In Enciso and Fernandez, Paraguay have two terrific talents that should be in great spirits after their goalscoring exploits on Saturday. Enciso, in particular, has a real chance to make himself a star of this tournament, and the 20-year-old will be looking to make Mali another of his victims at the Parc des Princes.

Ultimately, I see both teams finding the net on Tuesday in a high-scoring contest, but Paraguay's superior firepower should ensure they at least avoid defeat in Paris and give themselves a great chance of reaching the quarter-finals of the competition.

Offers

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