Football Bet of the Day: Back goals in top-of-the-table Brazilian clash

Tuesday's football bet of the day is an early one - UK speaking, at least - as Santos FC host Gremio Novorizontino in a Campeonato Brasileiro Serie B top-of-the-table clash at the Estadio Urbano Caldeira (01:00).

There's just a single point separating the sides heading into this crunch clash in Brazil, while neither team has lost since August. I'm steering well away from a result prediction with the value, in my mind, coming in the both teams to score market...

Santos FC vs Gremio Novorizontino Odds

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Santos experienced the ultimate disappointment last December as they suffered relegation for the first time in their 111-year history. Peixe finished 17th in Serie A, one point behind Bahia, who secured the final survival slot on the last day.

Pele's former club started the 2024 Serie B campaign in fine fashion, winning five of their first six games to justify their pre-season favourites tag. However, four straight defeats followed, and the picture completely changed.

Santos bounced back brilliantly, though, embarking on a 10-match unbeaten run, and heading into Tuesday's contest, have lost just once in their last 16.

They face the ultimate test in midweek, however, as they host a Novorizontino side one place and one point above them. Tigre do Vale narrowly missed out on promotion to Serie A last season, ending the year one point behind fourth-placed Atletico GO and third-placed Criciuma, who joined champions Vitoria and runners-up Juventude in the top tier.

Undeterred by their near miss, Novorizontino have stormed to the top of the standings after a run of just one defeat in their last 17 games; in fact, after losing three of their first five matches, Eduardo Baptista's side have only been beaten twice across their next 22.

One of their 13 league wins was against Santos at their home - the Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi - back on June 8, with Fabricio Daniel, Reverson and Rafael Donato scoring for Novorizontino and Diego Pituca netting what proved to be a mere consolation for the visitors.

The sides also met in the Paulista on February 18, when both teams also scored, with Novorizontino winning 2-1 at Santos' Estadio Urbano Caldeira.

Football Odds

The Estadio Urbano Caldeira is also the scene for Tuesday's clash, one that takes on even more significance considering the proximity of the teams in the table, and the fact there will be just 10 games left to play after it is finished.

Santos and Novorizontino both look well-placed to finish in the top four and secure promotion to the top tier, but nothing is guaranteed yet with Sport Recife in fifth, just seven points behind the leaders, and many other clubs still in the mix.

As such, both sides should be well up for Tuesday's encounter, and that should pave the way for some goals.

Of course, there is always the danger that they could cancel each other out, and settle for a point, but I don't see things playing out that way this week.

Eleven of Santos' 27 league games (41%) have ended with at least a goal on each side, while it's 12 out of 27 (44%) for Novorizontino.

Both teams have scored in Santos' last two home matches, a 2-2 draw with Ponte Preta and a 2-1 victory over America MG, while Novorizontino played out a 2-2 with Coritiba in their last away outing.

Santos have found the net in eight of their last 10 games - including their last four - while Tuesday's visitors have struck in nine of their last 10 - also including their last four.

At 11/8, I think there's great value to be had in backing the two best teams to score.

Offers

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