Football Bet of the Day: Italy can surprise France again

Sunday brings us a whole host of Nations League action, and that is where our selection for the Football Bet of the Day comes from as some of Europe’s big guns go toe-to-toe. There are valuable points on the line so buckle up for some entertaining action. Keep on reading to discover my selection for Sunday’s action. 

There’s been a slight change to the Nations League finals as rather than four teams making up the usual semi-finals, now eight teams qualify and they head into a straight knock-out quarter-final format that begins in March.

It means that there is less importance on winning the group in League A, although that will see nations secure a better ranking and potentially an easier draw in the finals tournament. It means that Italy and France meet in Milan knowing that both teams will compete for the trophy next summer, with the hosts currently on 13 points, and France on 10. 

Belgium and Israel haven’t put up much of a fight in this group, but I still think there is value to be had as we preview this elite match-up at San Siro. Italy have really turned a corner under Luciano Spalletti and after a difficult Euro 2024, in which they lost to Switzerland in the last 16. 

They are unbeaten since then, having beaten Israel twice, beaten France away from home and taken four points from two games against Belgium. They are all tough opponents and Spalletti deserves massive credit for the way he has expertly taken them to the top of the group. 

The 3-5-1-1 worked wonders again against Belgium last time out and it feels like Italy are able to become more of the sum of their parts. There isn’t a massive amount of world-class international talent in this squad, especially with Federico Chiesa out injured, but they are able to win games of football. 

My Football Bet of the Day for Sunday, November 17 is Italy to beat France and BTTS in Milan. Italy had conceded in every Nations League game they had played before they kept Belgium out on Thursday night, with even Israel finding the net on two separate occasions against them. France have an unlimited amount of attacking quality, and so I don’t think it is a surprise that I am backing them to score, but I also feel Italy’s form is being underrated. 

They beat France 3-1 back in September having conceded in the first minute, before Federico Dimarco, Davide Frattesi and Giacomo Raspadori all found the net. These two obviously share a lot of history, with France beating Italy in the final of Euro 2000, before Italy got their revenge in the World Cup final in 2006. 

This meeting may not have the same gravitas as those previous ones, but I do believe that the home team can come out on top, just as they did a few months ago. France drew at home to Israel in their last fixture and they don’t seem quite as strong as they once were. Another defeat here would mark a disappointing 2024, after they fell to Spain in the summer. 

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