Football Bet of the Day: Second half the one for goals at Old Trafford

Manchester United host Arsenal on Super Sunday (16:30, Sky Sports Main Event), looking to bounce back from that woeful 4-0 defeat to Crystal Palace on Monday night. The Gunners meanwhile have more than just pride to play for, with the Premier League title on the line. 

They can’t afford to drop any points if they are to keep the pressure on Manchester City heading into the final week of the season, and it is this gargantuan fixture which I have chosen to focus on for my Football Bet of the Day.

Manchester United have conceded the second-highest number of shots in the Premier League this season, and they are more than likely going to get taken apart by Arsenal on Sunday afternoon. The 4-0 defeat to Palace was alarming, but it has just been the latest of a long run of poor performances. 

Erik ten Hag doesn’t look like he can turn things round, and now he has confirmed that Luke Shaw, Mason Mount and Lisandro Martinez will all not feature in this game, his injury issues are not subsiding. Anyway, United being bad doesn’t actually have that much to do with this selection, but instead we are backing the second half to contain more goals than the first. Simple as that. 

It may not seem like a big price, but when you delve into the statistics for both Manchester United and Arsenal, near EVS is excellent value for this selection. United were only 1-0 down to Palace at half-time on Monday, before losing 4-0. Both of the goals in the 1-1 draw with Burnley came in the second half and four of the six goals in their game against Sheffield United came after the half-time oranges. 

There were four goals in the second half of their FA Cup semi-final, and three in the 2-2 draw with Liverpool. In fact, in five of the last six fixtures there have been more goals in the second half than the fist. 

Meanwhile for Arsenal, the same is true. In five of their last six games, there have been more goals in the second half. The only exception to that trend was the chaotic north London derby in which they were 3-0 up at the break, and clinging onto all three points by full-time. 

I don’t know what it is about this Man United team, or what gets said in the dressing room, but they seem to come out in the second half with no drive and tactical nous. As a result, I think we will see Arsenal turn things up a notch in the second half, and begin to bang in the goals. It might not be the most adventurous pick in the world, but I’m confident it should land at Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon. 

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