Football Bet of the Day: Slovenia to bat Bulgaria away in pre-Euros boost

Saturday, June 8; the relative calm before the storm ahead of the European Championship and Copa America taking centre stage until mid-July. The former begins next Friday and will have three fixtures on its second day, so soak up the last quiet Saturday while you can.

This weekend isn't totally event-free, however, with several pre-tournament international friendlies being played, and it's one between Slovenia and Bulgaria at the Stadio Stozice in Ljubljana that features in my football bet of the day for Saturday.

Slovenia vs Bulgaria Odds

Slovenia are 3/5 to triumph on Saturday, giving the hosts a win probability of 62%. Meanwhile, Bulgaria are priced at 9/2, a draw is 3/1 and over 2.5 goals is 11/10.

Slovenia's first of two pre-Euro 2024 friendlies saw them beat Bulgaria 2-1 in Ljubljana on Tuesday. Jan Mlakar opened the scoring in the 11th minute, with Armenia failing to register a shot on target in the first 45 minutes.

The Armenians came out roaring after the break, however, and were rewarded for their efforts with an equaliser struck by Varazdat Haroyan. Ex-Atalanta star Josip Ilicic was subsequently sent on for his first international appearance since November 2021 and scored within four minutes of his introduction, and that proved to be the winner for the hosts.

Slovenia are now unbeaten in their last four games, four of which they have won, and have lost just once in 10 games dating back to a 4-2 victory over Northern Ireland on September 7. Head coach Matjaž Kek has overseen eight wins in that run, five of them without conceding.

Bulgaria, meanwhile, extended their unbeaten streak to five matches on Tuesday with a goalless draw in Bucharest with Romania. All three of their games in 2024 have featured two or fewer goals after they beat Tanzania 1-0 and drew 1-1 with Azerbaijan in March friendlies.

That victory over Tanzania remains their only win since November 16, however, with Bulgaria failing to win in 14 of their 15 matches since, blanking in front of goal in seven of them.

Bulgaria claimed a creditable draw in Bucharest against another Euro 2024-qualified nation – Romania – on Tuesday, but they haven’t won any of their eight away games since the start of 2023, last winning on their travels against Cyprus in Larnaca in November 2022.

That's music to the ears of Slovenia, who will be uber-confident of extending their sensational record in Ljubljana, where they have won nine of their last 10 games dating back to September 2022. Denmark are the only team to have denied them in that time, and they were only able to take a point in a 1-1 draw, Manchester United's £72m striker Rasmus Hojlund cancelling out Andraz Sporar's opener.

Bulgaria will look to draw inspiration from their stalemate in Bucharest and the goal Armenia scored in a spell of pressure at the start of their second-half against Slovenia, but their chances of finding the net are unlikely to be helped by the inclusion of several stars in the home side's ranks.

Atletico Madrid goalkeeper Jan Oblak was left on the bench against the Armenians but should be reinstated between the sticks on Saturday, while reported Arsenal target Benjamin Sesko - on the back of a sensational goalscoring end to the season with RB Leipzig - is also hoping to be promoted from the bench, where he stayed for the entirety of Tuesday.

Add in Ilicic, defender David Brekalo and midfielder Sandi Lovric, and you have a much stronger Slovenia starting XI this weekend which should prove troublesome for the visitors.

I think Bulgaria will find it tough to break through a resolute Slovenia defence, but their own stubbornness leads me to back under 2.5 goals and a Slovenia win.

Three of Slovenia's last five wins have featured two or fewer goals to add some more meat to the bones on this selection.

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 50% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

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