Football Bet of the Day: Coventry can find goals against stricken Millwall

The festive football period begins this weekend in my opinion. Clubs up and down the country are preparing for the hectic schedule, and they will want to get up and running with three points this weekend. On Saturday, we have a Merseyside Derby to look forward to at lunchtime, while Manchester United host Nottingham Forest in the late kick-off in the Premier League. 

However, for our Football Bet of the Day, we have turned our attention to the Championship, where Frank Lampard will take charge of his second Coventry City match. They travel to Millwall, who haven’t lost in their past nine outings, but I think I have spotted some value… 

First of all, yes I am a Coventry fan - but I believe I have put my bias to one side here and will convince you that this is a sensible selection with facts and reasoning. Coventry have massive issues defensively this term, of that there is no denying. They have conceded two goals in each of their last five outings, and I’m not sure a week of training will be able to solve that. 

So I don’t want to back the Sky Blues to win at the Den, where Millwall have only lost twice all season, but I think we can back them to score at least twice. This might seem like a bit of a rogue shout given Millwall have only conceded seven in nine home games to date, but don’t you worry, I’ve got my reasons. 

First of all, the Sky Blues have severely underperformed their xG so far this term. They actually rank third in the division for xG behind Leeds United and Middlesbrough, two sides who should finish in the top six this term. Looking at that then, it still feels harsh that Mark Robins was sacked, but what’s done is done. 

What it does show is that Coventry have the attacking players to be creative in the final third, they just haven’t taken as many chances as they should have done. However, in recent weeks they have drawn 2-2 with Sheffield United, Sunderland and Cardiff City and clearly they have the ability to score goals. 

Ephron Mason-Clark and Tatsuhiro Sakamoto are finally playing in their preferred positions on the wings in Lampard’s 4-3-3, while Ellis Simms could be given a confidence boost by his former boss at Everton. The new head coach only had one full day of training before heading into that Cardiff game, where Victor Torp’s late penalty rescued a draw and so another week on the training ground should have served the Sky Blues well. But in truth, this isn’t about Coventry’s obvious attacking ability. 

Millwall vs Coventry City Odds

If Millwall had no injury issues heading into this game I would probably be backing them to win comfortably. But on Saturday they will now be without their top three centre-back choices, leaving Neil Harris with a serious conundrum at the back. Star man Japhet Tanganga is suspended having picked up his fifth yellow card against Oxford, Shaun Hutchinson has a minor hamstring issue that has ruled him out and Jake Cooper is absent until the new year with a long-term issue. 

It means Murray Wallace may have to deputise at centre-back having only played 11 minutes in the Championship in total this season. He might be partnered by left-back Danny McNamara or perhaps Billy Mitchell, who is a defensive midfielder by trade. Whatever Harris does, his side will lack the same solidity and physical presence in both boxes that they usually have. 

I think somebody like Simms could dominate that makeshift centre-back pairing, while Norman Bassette could take advantage of the lack of pace on show in the heart of defence. With Cov’s attacking threats and Millwall’s injuries, I think we could have found some serious value at 2/1 for them to score over 1.5 goals. If you want to push the boat out, over 2.5 Coventry goals is a massive 7/1, both of which I believe are possibilities on Saturday afternoon.

Offers

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Premier League or Championship game on Friday or Saturday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Sunday’s games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement).

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.