Benfica vs Sporting Prediction: Mourinho factor should see at least one clean sheet

Lisbon’s Big Two face each other in a crucial match as Benfica host Sporting Lisbon in the Portuguese Superliga on Friday night, kick off 20:15.  

Jamie Pacheco has just the one tip for this match and it’s that at least one side keeps a clean sheet here, with Jose Mourinho being a big factor in that selection. You can check out his sole Benfica vs Sporting Prediction below...  

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Benfica 

Another week on the domestic front, another (successful) struggle for Benfica, who had made a meal out of an easy-looking Cup tie against Atletico, beat Ajax (the worst side in the Champions League as per the table bar Benfica going into the match) 2-0 and then needed two very, very late goals to win the game 2-1 against Nacional da Madeira on Saturday.  

As ever, Jose Mourinho either doesn't want to dominate games or isn't capable of doing so, even against sides many places below him in the table, or in the case of Atletico, several divisions below Benfica.  

Sure, there have been a couple of injuries, but it's the mentality- more on that in a bit- that's the real problem.  

Benfica are trailing Sporting by three points and Porto by four, so defeat here would just about signal the end of their title challenge.  

Defender Alexander Bah, and wingers Bruma and Dodi Lukebakio are the absences through injury.  

Sporting

If Benfica are stumbling over the line, Sporting are racing over it with their last three wins in three different competitions being by 3-0, 3-0 and 4-0. You have to go back to the first week of October for the last time they lost a match, going 2-1 down at Napoli, no disgrace in that.  

Though Luis Suarez is very much their main man in attack, they've been sharing the goals around all season, always a sign of a good side in that they're not too dependent on just one player for goals. 

Crucially, they have a strong squad, so manager Rui Borges has plenty of options to bring off the bench if needed.  

But three players who will neither start or come off the bench are midfielder Daniel Braganca, forward Fotis and defender Zeno Debast, all injured.  

Benfica vs Sporting Odds 

The way I see it, this match is mostly about one man and no prizes for guessing who that may be.  

How Mourinho sets up his team, what system he plays and how adventurous he is (or isn't, more to the point) will have more bearing on this match than any other factor, so that's what I'll mostly be focusing on here, though their recent results have to be taken into consideration as well, of course.  

So with that in mind, I wouldn't bet on the 6/4 on Benfica with borrowed money. Then again, the bookies aren't giving much away on Sporting either, who are 7/4. They're considerably the better team in my opinion, but that's not to say it's a value price.   

I'd rather take the 11/5 on the draw if I had to, which would have paid out in two of the last four between these two. Draw or Sporting on the Double Chance market at 1/2 is another decent option.  

Both Teams to Score  

Now, this selection is very much going against the grain in terms of recent results between these two sides.  

8 of the last 10 between these two in all competitions have seen both teams score, but I'm very much in the camp of thinking that is going to change here.  

And it could all be down to Mourinho once again. His lack of ambition to try to score a goal was clear against Porto back in October, pretty happy to take 0-0 (at home) rather than trying to make the most of home comforts and recover some points in the table. But that's Mourinho for you.  

His first priority will be to not lose the game, and 0-0 at 9/1, 15/2 on 1-0 (Benfica win) or 8/1 on 1-0 (Sporting win) are lively runners in the correct score market.  

But 'no' on both teams to score at evens will do me just fine as it covers those three outcomes and a few more.  

First Goalscorer  

Given I don't expect many goals, the anytime goalscorer market doesn't interest me but there are some interesting prices on the first goalscorer market outside the usual suspects.  

For Sporting, Francisco Trincao at 7/1 and Pedro Goncalves at 13/2 look decent options, while for Benfica centre-back Nico Otamendi, who has a decent scoring record, is 18/1, and Schjelderup, A, at 10/1 (if he starts) is a reasonable price. But I'm happy to go with just the one bet here.   

Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):  

• Points Staked: 17.1  
• Points Returned: 19.88   
• Current P/L: +2.78    

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Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...