Benfica vs Porto Prediction: Dragons good for at least a point

It’s Benfica v Porto on Sunday night, one of the biggest games in Portuguese football. 

Jamie Pacheco thinks Porto should at least draw the match while two players are decent bets for a goal, with available at 23/10.

Football Odds

Team News

The Eagles put in a pretty insipid performance in midweek at Bayern, eventually losing 1-0. It could well have been three or four because they were under the cosh all match, didn’t have the ball, didn’t attack and looked a shadow of the side who has dominated in the league these last few weeks and not too long ago was beating Atletico Madrid 4-0 in the Champions League.

There was perhaps a feeling that they weren’t going to get anything from that Bayern match, and they were best off already preparing for this one; the fact that two or three key players started on the bench backs up that theory.

It will be interesting to see if the plan was justified. A win here against their rivals and they’ll be right back in business, justifying that team selection on Wednesday, but a defeat and a few questions will be asked of Bruno Lage.

Still, their form in the league has been excellent with six straight wins, including bating Farense 2-1 last Saturday.

Angel Di Maria and Vangelis Pavlidis should come back into the side after not making the XI in midweek.

Possible XI:  Trubin, Carreras, Otamendi, Araujo, Kabora/Aursnes, Kokcu, Florentino, Fernandes, Di Maria, Pavlidis, Arturkoglu.

There was heartbreak for Porto in midweek, away at Lazio. They put in a decent performance but came away with nothing after conceding in injury-time, with veteran ex-Chelsea and Barcelona forward Pedro, now 37, scoring the winner.

It’s a result that leaves them down in 22^nd in the Europa League so there’s work to be done there if they’re to make the next stage.

Predictably, things have been a bit easier on the domestic front with seven wins on the bounce. Prior to conceding two in Rome on Thursday, they’d kept five clean sheets in a row in all competitions so that’s another positive.

Brazilian midfielder Pepe should return to the starting XI after being on the bench against Lazio.

Possible XI: Costa, Djalo, Perez, Fernandes, Moura, Galeno, Namaso, Gonzalez, Pepe, Vieira, Samu.y

Benfica vs Porto Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Benfica vs Porto Odds page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match

1pt Back Porto or Draw on the Double Chance market @ 8/11

Benfica are 21/20, implied probability 48%, which plays 12/5 on both the draw and Porto, implied probability 30%.

That looks short on the hosts at first glance. They’re behind Porto in the league and though they did get over the line against Farense last weekend, it wasn’t a great performance and the one I Munich was considerably worse.

Additionally, their record in this fixture hasn’t been particularly good of late. They did win 1-0 last year with a Di Maria goal but lost 1-2 and 0-1 in the two before that, drew 1-1 back in 2021 and lost 0-2 the year before that.

So, you can see why 21/20 looks short given they’ve only won one of their last five against Porto at the Estadio da Luz.  The 8/11 on the draw or the Porto win makes plenty of appeal.

5pts Back Samu Omorodion to score anytime @ 23/10

This hasn’t been the most high-scoring fixture over the past few years but both sides have been full of goals this season which suggests we might get some here. But rather than take the 10/11 on over 2.5 goals, I’d rather take a gamble on who might get them.

And given that 1-1 or 2-1 to either side would be my idea of a final scoreline, I think it makes sense to pick one player from each side.

For Porto youngster Samu Omorodion has been in fine scoring form in his first season with 11 goals in 11 games, including a hat-trick at AVS in late October. He missed out last week when they scored four at home to Estoril and had a quiet night in Rome but could be about to pounce again; he’s 23/10 to score anytime.

5pts Back Kerem Akturkoglu to score anytime @ 23/10

Our old friend Kerem Akturkoglu has a record almost as good as the young Spaniard, with 10 in 14 and like Samu, missed out in his last two games although like Samu, he also scored a hat-trick in the one before that!

At exactly the same price as the Porto man at 23/10, you’d think that at least one of those two will come good on the day.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub