Benfica vs Porto Prediction: Both teams to score with a twist…

Benfica play host to Porto in Lisbon in a crucial game in the Portuguese Superliga’s title race, kicking off at 18:00 on Sunday March 8.   

Jamie Pacheco has just the one selection for this one, and it’s that both teams score in a game with fewer than four goals in it.    

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. 00:00 06/03/26 – 23:59 13/03/26. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1)+ on Sports in 7 days. £20 Sports & £20 in Acca Free Bets within 24 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excls & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. 00:00 06/03/26 – 23:59 13/03/26. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1)+ on Sports in 7 days. £20 Sports & £20 in Acca Free Bets within 24 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excls & T&Cs Apply.

Benfica

Benfica are currently third on 58 points and a win here would put them back in business as regards trying to secure a Top 2 finish and the (possible) Champions League place that comes with that.

A win here would also do their Lisbon rivals Sporting a massive favour in terms of trying to win the league. Porto are, after all, top on 65 points with Sporting on 61.

There was no disgrace in losing 3-1 on aggregate to Real Madrid in the Champions League playoffs and they’re on a run of four straight wins in the league. In typical Jose Mourinho style, three of those were tight: all 2-1.

Frederik Aursnes, who can play in just about any position on the pitch, has been used as a central midfielder of late. Gianluca Prestianni, the man at the centre of the racism row involving Vinicius Jr, has been playing while UEFA decides what to do about it.

Attacker Rafa, in his second spell at the club, is yet to justify the fact he’s the highest-paid player in the league, never mind the club, contributing just two goals in eight games since joining in January.

Expect a big game from 38-year-old Nicolas Otamendi, the skipper, who rises to the occasion in the most important matches.

Porto  

Porto have had a tricky last month or so, which has coincided with the injury to top scorer Samu.

Without him, they don’t have a focal point in attack or a proven goalscorer.

Since Samu picked up that injury against Sporting just over a month ago, they’ve crawled to a couple of 1-0 wins in the league, but beat Arouca 3-1 last weekend in a better display.

But we’ll have to wait and see how they fare against one of the better sides they’re up against. In midweek, Sporting, the best side in the country at the moment, beat them 1-0 in the first leg of the Portuguese Cup, a handy 13/8 winner as we had Sporting to win with less than four goals in the match.

Watch out for youngster Rodrigo Mora. The winger is only 18 but has already played plenty of matches this season. If he can add a few more goals to his game, he can become a real superstar.

Benfica vs Porto Odds

Benfica are 11/10, with the draw at 9/4 and Porto 12/5.

Instinctively, that looks a slightly short price on Benfica despite the fact they’ve beaten them the last three times they played them at Estadio da Luz.

Porto’s lack of goals without Samu is a worry, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the 3/10 on Benfica or a draw on the double chance market, but that’s not the sort of price for me, irrespective of thinking that it’s very likely to win.

Anyway, there’s no reason why we have to play this market (or similar ones based on who will win the game), so we won’t.

1pt Back both teams to score and under 3.5 goals @ 11/5

Porto have a surprisingly low ‘both teams to score’ strike rate: just 33% at home and 25% away.

But I think it’s worth going against the grain here. A big part of the reason for those low numbers are that Porto were brilliant in defence at the start of the season, including keeping clean sheets in each of their first four home games of the season.

But they haven’t been quite as tight at the back of late, including conceding in their last two. Benfica have scored in seven of their last nine and will need to be ambitious here if they’re to get back into that race for a Top 2 finish, while Porto’s failure to get on the scoresheet against Sporting in midweek was the first time in (26!) matches that they didn’t score.

But we can do better than the 10/11 that both score. 1-1 would be my idea of a scoreline here (11/2 if you’re interested) or 2-1 to either side. So we can cover those bases by going both teams to score and under 3.5 goals, which is 11/5.

Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025/26 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):

• Points Staked: 30.6
• Points Returned: 34.47
• Current P/L: +3.87

Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025/26 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):  

• Points Staked: 30.1   
• Points Returned: 32.67    
• Current P/L: +2.57

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.