Benfica v Atletico Madrid Prediction: Hosts’ attacking pair can muster a goal between them

Benfica welcome in Atlético Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday, kick-off time 20:00, with a live broadcast on TNT Sports 7.   

Jamie Pacheco has a Bet Builder and two Benfica anytime goalscorers going for him here after being 2/2 and showing a 3-point profit in Benfica's opening Champions League match as he takes us through his Benfica vs Atletico Madrid Predictions...

Benfica 

We had two bets ahead of Benfica's visit to Red Star Belgrade and they both won.  

The Eagles' 2-1 victory meant we were paid out on 'both teams to score and no draw' at 11/8 while our punt on Red Star to win the most corners was an even more comfortable winner at 13/8, the hosts getting seven while the Lisbon outfit managed just one in the whole game. So, a lovely profit of 3.01 points to get us going as we follow Benfica for their whole campaign in the Champions League.   

Since that win in Belgrade, there were further victories over Boavista (3-0) and Gil Vicente (5-1) meaning that Bruno Lage has an 100% record since returning for his second spell.  

Vereran Nicolas Otamendi, who played over 150 matches for Manchester City scored the first for Benfica after they conceded early at home to Gil Vicente on Saturday, while Kerem Akturkoglu made it five for the season in nine appearances when he put Benfica ahead just eight minutes later. 

They look in good shape, but this is going to be as tough as they come.  

Possible XI:  Trubin, Carreras, Silva, Otamendi, Araujo, Kokcu, Florentino, Aursnes, Di Maria Pavlidis, Arturkoglu. 

Atletico Madrid  

It's been a strong start to the campaign for Atletico, too.  

In nine matches this season, they're unbeaten in all of them. That includes four draws from eight La Liga matches, and they may look to improve on that record and start turning a few of those into narrow wins by taking a few more risks. But as we said, they're unbeaten and that's no small feat after two months of the season, especially when that included a last-gasp draw against Real Madrid at the weekend.  

Trailing since the 64th minute, substitute Angel Correa bundled the ball over and after initially being given offside, he was finally allowed to celebrate such an important goal.  

Like Benfica, they won their first CL match of the season, also beating RB Leipzig 2-1 (but at home) with Antoine Griezmann and Jose Gimenez grabbing the goals.  

Maros Llorente was sent off very late in that Madrid Derby but should play here, as should Conor Gallagher (booked in that match) who has settled well, bringing energy and good passing to the table and even chipping in with a couple of goals.  

Possible XI: Oblak, Gimenez, Molina, Reinildo, Le Normand, Gallagher, De Paul, Llorente, Alvarez, Griezmann, Sorloth.  

Benfica vs Atletico Madrid Odds

It's quite remarkable that despite both sides being in Europe pretty much every single year of the last two decades, they've only ever played each other once before in Lisbon. That was in the 2015-2016 Champions League, with the Colchoneros winning 2-1. Two months earlier Benfica had beaten them in Madrid by the same scoreline. So, honours even in the only matches between these two.  

Atletico are 7/5 and though they should probably just about be favourites, that's a tad shorter than what we would have expected.  

They've drawn four of their nine matches to date and are never the biggest scorers, so you'd think that if Benfica get at least one – they should, they've scored in each of their last seven – Atleti will struggle to actually win the game.  

With Diego Simeone's side unbeaten so far and Lage winning all his matches, it's either a case of 'something has to give', or not. The 'not' is the 12/5 draw, which despite being the biggest of the three prices is arguably the most likely, between two-well matched sides who would both probably see the stalemate as a decent result. Benfica are 2/1.  

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Bet Builder 

With Benfica having the advantage of an extra day's rest and having to exert themselves less in that weekend match, plus their good form, they should be able to get something from the game here and the 4/7 on Benfica or Draw in the Double Chance market appeals.  

As does the 8/13 they get the most corners. We've already discussed how they got just one in Belgrade but that's a big anomaly. Their corner count domestically has been 12, 12, 5 and 11 (at home) and 7, 8 and 5 away. They're 7/7 for getting the most corners in the match in the Portuguese league.  

Atletico have got just 3, 2, 4 and 3 corners on the road this campaign and though bizarrely three of those low counts were still enough to win the most corners battle, they'll need a lot more than to beat Benfica on Wednesday on that metric.  

We'll happily take the 8/13 on the hosts getting the most corners, with the Bet Builder coming to 6/4.  

To Score Anytime  

Benfica have scored in all of their last seven, a total of 19 goals. They'll do well to get two here (they might) but should get one, given that track record.  

So, it makes sense to split stakes between their two most likely scorers.  

Vangelis Pavlidis has taken a few games to get going but has looked much sharper of late and will lead the attack. He scored 32 in 53 appearances at AZ Alkmar last season, so he knows where the goal is. 

Then there's Akturkoglu, who has been superb, that goal in Belgrade being part of a run where he's now scored in four of his last five.    

Pavlidis is 7/4 and Akturkoglu 16/5 so a winner on the former will give us a small profit, a winner on the latter a decent one and a winner on both will really have us in clover.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...