Benfica vs Marseille Prediction: More Di Maria misery for the French

The two least-fancied teams left in the Europa League - at least according to Betfred odds - meet in Lisbon on Thursday (KO, 20:00), as Benfica host Marseille at the Estadio da Luz. Both sides are 20/1 to win the competition, with Liverpool (10/11) well out in front.

We have provided our Benfica vs Marseille prediction down below and detailed all the latest team news and match odds for Thursday's first-leg fixture in Portugal, which will be shown in the UK live on TNT Sports.

Benfica's preparations for this match took a double hit from Sporting last week as their Lisbon rivals knocked them out of the Taca de Portugal on Tuesday before beating them in the Primeira Liga four days later, a result which has likely signalled the end of the Eagles' tilt for the title.

Therefore, the Europa League now takes precedence for Roger Schmidt and his charges, who beat Rangers 3-2 on aggregate in the last round, drawing 2-2 at home before winning 1-0 at Ibrox.

Marseille's route to the quarter-finals wasn't straightforward either, as Villarreal threatened to overturn a 4-0 deficit in France by taking a three-goal lead at the Estadio de la Ceramica. The Yellow Submarines weren't able to get an all-important fourth though, with Jonathan Clauss netting a consolation to make it 3-1 on the night for Villarreal and 5-3 on aggregate for OM.

Like their opponents on Thursday, Marseille have endured a difficult league campaign, currently sitting in eighth and four points off the top six.

Team News

Fredrik Aursnes was dismissed in the final stages of Saturday's 2-1 defeat to Sporting but his suspension is only applicable to the Portuguese league, so the Norwegian is expected to start on Thursday.

Arthur Cabral, Joao Mario and Orkun Kokcu are all options if Schmidt decides to freshen things up from the start.

Marseille are missing several first-team players for the trip to Lisbon, with Michael Murillo, Valentin Rongier and Bilal Nadir all out injured. Ex-Newcastle United defender Chancel Mbemba is also a doubt after missing Friday's 3-1 defeat at Lille.

Geoffrey Kondogbia and Iliman Ndiaye were both restricted to substitute appearances in that game but could return to the starting XI here.

Match Odds

Benfica are 5/6 to take a first-leg lead, giving them an implied win probability of 54.5%, while Marseille are 16/5, or a 23.8% chance. The draw can be backed at 11/4, both teams to score at 4/6 and over 2.5 goals at 8/11.

Benfica to win @ 5/6

The Portuguese giants struggled at home against Rangers, twice going behind before striking back both times. They also failed to win any of their three Champions League group games at the Estadio da Luz, losing to Salzburg and Real Sociedad before drawing 3-3 with Inter Milan.

Generally, though, they have been impressive at home this season, going unbeaten in the league on their own turf and beating big sides like Porto and Sporting.

They now face a team who, despite sitting eighth in Ligue 1, actually have the worst away record in the French top-flight, taking just 10 points from 14 league games.

OM have won just four away matches all season - one apiece at Clermont and Lorient, who are bottom (18th) and 16th in Ligue 1 respectively, one at fifth-tier Thionville in the Coupe de France, and one at AEK in the Europa League group stage (the Greek club finished last on four points).

Their chances of a positive result on Thursday have been dealt a further blow by the news that Benfica have cancelled away fans' tickets after being warned of potential violence by authorities.

Angel Di Maria to score anytime @ 23/10

Angel Di Maria hasn't scored at club level since the Europa League round of 16 first leg, when he scored Benfica's first equaliser against Rangers. That was his third goal in the competition this season after scoring twice in the first leg of their play-off tie with French side Toulouse at the Estadio da Luz.

In total, the Argentine has 15 goals to his name since returning to Benfica last summer, and he will be someone the side look to on Thursday. The 36-year-old's chances of finding the net here are further improved as the club's designated penalty taker, though he did miss his last effort from 12 yards against Chaves on March 29.

Cabral also missed a penalty later on in this same game and Di Maria had scored his previous four spot-kicks this season, so I would expect him to be handed responsibility again if they are given one.

Di Maria is a big-game player, as evidenced on plenty of occasions for Real Madrid, PSG and Argentina, whom he scored for in the 2022 World Cup final in December 2022.

France, Toulouse, he certainly has a penchant for striking against the French when it matters most...

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