Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen Prediction: Hosts should have too much at fortress Allianz Arena

Bayern Munich have been almost perfect at home in this season's Bundesliga, claiming 28 points from 30 on offer, and their next opponents at the Allianz Arena, Werder Bremen, face a tough battle to avoid defeat in Bavaria on Friday night (19:30, Sky Sports Football).

Below is my Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Bayern Munich tied Alphonso Davies down to a new, long-term contract earlier this week but the Canadian is expected to be sidelined until March with the hamstring injury that has kept him out of the club's last three matches.

Hiroki Ito (foot) is also still injured while Daniel Peretz continues to recover from a kidney contusion.

With a trip to Celtic on Wednesday in the first leg of their Uefa Champions League knockout phase play-off on the mind, Bayern boss Vincent Kompany could be tempted into changes against Werder Bremen, with the likes of Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sane and Joao Palhinha potentially coming into his starting XI.

The Belgian confirmed that Leon Goretzka is back from injury and revealed that two Bayern players were battling minor colds ahead of the game, but wouldn't be drawn on who exactly.

Football Odds

Werder Bremen will be without suspended duo Niklas Stark and Marco Friedl, who both received red cards in last Friday's 1-0 win over Mainz, as well as injured sextet Felix Agu, Oliver Burke (both knee), Leonardo Bittencourt (thigh), Issa Kabore (hip), Julian Malatini (muscle) and Keke Topp (ankle).

Jens Stage is free to return to the visitors' midfield, however, after serving a suspension last week, and with Topp still out injured, head coach Ole Werner could turn to RB Leipzig loanee Andre Silva to make his debut and lead the line in Bavaria.

Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen Odds

Bayern have won 11 of their last 13 league games and are heavy favourites to make it 12 in 14 on Friday, with odds of 1/10 giving Kompany's side an implied probability of 90.9%, while Werder are 20/1, or a 4.8% chance, to record back-to-back victories and claim a first success on the road this calendar year.

The draw is priced at 9/1, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 3.5 total goals at 4/7.

Harry Kane (2/5) is streets ahead as the favourite in the anytime goalscorer market with Bayern teammate Jamal Musiala (5/4) providing the closest competition. Marvin Ducksch, who struck Bremen's equaliser in their last away game, a 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund on January 25, is first up for Werner's team at 18/5.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Bayern Munich & Yes @ 6/5

I don't see Werder following Leverkusen's footsteps and becoming just the second team this season to take Bundesliga points off Bayern at the Allianz Arena; however, I do think the visitors can cause their hosts some problems, particularly with the home side potentially having one eye on their midweek European tie in Glasgow.

Bayern will have plenty of rest between the fixtures but Kompany could still make a few changes and that may disrupt their fluency somewhat.

Regardless, Bayern have been far from rock solid in defence recently, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last five games and shipping 10 goals across that period. They let up three goals at home to second-bottom Holstein Kiel last Saturday and in their previous home match, allowed Slovan Bratislava to score in a 3-1 win.

Both teams to score has been a winner in 55 per cent (11) of their 20 Bundesliga games this season and Bayern have won seven of those contests, while BTTS - Yes has landed in 60 per cent of Bremen's league outings, jumping to 70 per cent when only counting away trips; only Kiel (100), Leverkusen (89) and Dortmund (80) have recorded a higher percentage on their travels.

Werder have scored in five of their last six games including four of their five this calendar year and can cause issues for Bayern on Friday, as they did in the corresponding fixture last season when they won 1-0 at Allianz Arena.

Team With Most Booking Points - Werder Bremen @ 4/5

Werder have received 40 yellow cards in the Bundesliga this season compared to Bayern's 30 and while Kompany's charges are yet to be shown one of the red variety, Friday's visitors have been given four; only Dortmund (five) have been flashed red more times.

Strangely, Bayern did receive three yellows, and therefore 30 booking points, to Bremen's zero in September's reverse fixture in Bremen, which last season's runners-up won 5-0, and they were also the team with the most booking points at the Allianz Arena in 2023/24.

However, coming off the back of a game in which they received two reds and eight yellows, as well as seeing their boss Werner handed his marching orders, we could see a fired-up Werder on Friday, and the season statistics point toward the visitors earning more booking points in Bavaria.

Offers

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