Bayern Munich vs Inter Milan Prediction: Inter can frustrate free-scoring hosts

Bayern Munich welcome Inter Milan to the Allianz Arena on Tuesday (20:00, TNT Sports 1) for the first leg of their Uefa Champions League quarter-final tie. The hosts have been one of the most prolific teams in this competition with 28 goals in their 12 games to date, but the visitors boast the best defensive record with just two goals conceded in 10 matches.

Read on for my Bayern Munich vs Inter Milan predictions, where you will also find the latest team news and match odds.

Football Odds

Team News

Bayern have suffered a huge blow over the weekend as Jamal Musiala has been ruled out for up to eight weeks with a torn hamstring, which he sustained in Friday's Bundesliga victory over Augsburg.

It looks like boss Vincent Kompany will have to turn to 35-year-old Thomas Muller, whose 25-year association with Die Roten is confirmed to be coming to an end in the summer, to fill in for the young star.

There are also concerns over top scorer Harry Kane, who was seen with an ice pack strapped around his ankle after the game and he confirmed that it was sprained. The England international is hoped to be okay to play on Tuesday, but he will need to be assessed closely.

If he gets the thumbs up to feature, Kane should expect to be supported by Leroy Sane and Michael Olise on the flanks.

Alphonso Davies and Dyot Upamecano remain sidelined with severe knee injuries, while winger Kingsley Coman appears to still be struggling with an unspecified problem.

Inter have an injury concern of their own in defender Alessandro Bastoni, who had to be withdrawn against Parma in Serie A on Sunday. His side were 2-0 up when he left the field but ended up having to settle for a draw.

It is hoped that Bastoni will be fine to play in Munich, which would be a huge boost for the Nerazzurri.

Boss Simone Inzaghi will be unable to call upon Denzel Dumfries,  Mehdi Taremi (both muscle), Piotr Zielinski (calf) on Tuesday due to injury, while midfielder Kristjan Asllani is out through suspension.

Davide Frattesi has had the door opened for him to join Calhanoglu and Henrikh Mkhitaryan in the middle of the park in light of Inter's absences. The visitors should deploy their lethal strike force of Marcus Thuram and captain Lautaro Martinez at the Allianz.

Bayern Munich vs Inter Milan Odds

Bayern Munich have won five of their six home games in the Champions League this campaign, and this is reflected in the markets as they are 10/11 (which has an implied probability 52.4%) to come away with the victory.

The other match at the Allianz was a draw against Celtic, while Inter experienced one stalemate across five of their away trips in this competition. The draw is available at 12/5.

Inter have prevailed in three of their five away fixtures in Europe and they are 11/4 to take the advantage in this tie.

All five of their European games on the road have produced under 2.5 goals, which has also been a successful bet in three of Bayern's home encounters in the UCL. Under 2.5 goals is marketed at 4/5 on this occasion.

Bayern forward Kane has 10 goals in the Champions League this term, the first English player to accomplish this feat in a single campaign, and he is the favourite to score anytime at 5/4.

Draw @ 12/5

This should be fascinating contest on Tuesday night. You have one of the best attacking teams in the Champions League against the side with the best defensive record. The onus will be on Bayern in their home leg to set the tempo, but Inter's plan will be to suppress the hosts, which has worked four times already this season.

It will be a tough trip for them as Bayern have been at their best when playing at home, but the fact that Inter have conceded just two goals in 10 games makes this battle just as difficult for Die Roten.

They are two good teams but for different reasons, and it feels like this could lead to them cancelling each other out on Tuesday. The two teams have only experienced one draw apiece in Europe this term, but this does feel like the kind of game where they can frustrate one another.

There are players on both sides capable of creating moments of magic but that in itself can be nullified by Inter, who have been outstanding defensively in this competition. I believe they can earn a hard-fought draw to take back to San Siro next Wednesday.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5

Following on from that last point, I think there will be shortage of goals in Munich, simply because Inter are so good at what they do, and they have the organisation to suppress Bayern's attacking threat.

All five of their away games in the Champions League have seen fewer than three goals scored, while under 2.5 goals has been a winning selection in three of Bayern's six home contests.

I've mentioned it a few times already but it is seriously impressive that the visitors have only conceded two goals in their 10 UCL fixtures this term. In total, seven of their matches have produced under 2.5 goals, and I think we will see this trend continue on Tuesday.

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