Bayern Munich vs Lazio Prediction: Tight game but back hosts to qualify

 | March 04 | 

6 mins read

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Harry Kane might be enjoying a good season personally, as he's banging in the goals for his new club, however the British media are already circling around like sharks at the fact he may end the season without a trophy. The Champions League looks like the best opportunity left.

Our Italian Football expert has got the assignment for this one, as he offers up his Bayern Munich vs Lazio predictions in his full match preview for the game live on TNT Sports 1, with a 19:45 kick-off on Tuesday night...

Bayern Munich vs Lazio Betting Tips:

  • Bayern To Win To Nil @ 10/11
  • Under 2.5 Goals @ 5/4

Harry Kane’s hopes to win a major title suffered another blow last Friday as Bayern dropped two points against Freiburg.

The team from the Black Forest looked more energetic and deserved (at least) the draw which has helped Leverkusen extending their lead in the Bundesliga to 10 points.

Therefore, the Champions League represents the only, realistic, opportunity for the Bavarians and their departing manager Thomas Tuchel to achieve silverware this season.

An elimination from Europe’s top competition on Tuesday might even cut short Tuchel’s tenure at Bayern as the club would record a trophyless season for the first time in 12 years.

Lazio on the other hand have nothing to lose from this tie, but, given how well they interpreted the first leg at the Stadio Olimpico, Maurizio Sarri’s men might sense they can achieve an historic qualification.

In fact, the Biancocelesti have never won a Champions League knockout tie and have only reached the quarter-finals of the competition in 2000, when they got defeated by Valencia.

Lazio’s Friday home game against AC Milan was marked by furious polemics, during and after the match, as the hosts got three players sent off (Pellegrini, Marusic and Guendouzi) in the second half and conceded with three minutes of normal time to go.

This was Lazio’s second defeat in a row (the fourth in the last seven games in all competitions), but the overall performance was better than the one in Firenze last Monday, when Lazio only had one shot on target.

In fact not only, while they were still playing with 11 men, Lazio had the better chances (the xG in the end were 1.60 to 0.80 for Immobile & co.) but also managed to resist and stifle AC Milan for over 30 minutes following the first sending off.

An encouraging sign given that Bayern are expected to attack from the start on Tuesday night.

At the moment Lazio seem much more comfortable without the ball, but their problems in front of goal, and particularly away from home (only 22 goals in 17 games), might cost the Laziali the passage to the next round.

Team News:

Thomas Tuchel will return to his origins, as he’s expected to put aside the three-man defence to line up his team with a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Due to Upamecano's disqualification, the defence will be made up of two former Serie A players, namely Kim and de Ligt, while Davies is ahead of Guerreiro to start as left back.

Sané, Muller and Musiala will have the task of inspiring Harry Kane. Mazraoui, Boey and Coman are all out due to injuries.

Maurizio Sarri will choose those players that have offered him more security so far.

Therefore, the experienced Vecino will play in a midfield three completed by Guendouzi and Luis Alberto. In defence, Gila will be confirmed alongside Romagnoli, while Hysaj should play as left-back in place of Lazzari with Marusic diverted to the right.

After the partial rest against AC Milan, Immobile will return from the first minute and lead the trident made up of Felipe Anderson and Zaccagni, with Isaksen who will certainly find space during the match.

Bayern Munich vs Lazio Odds:

Despite their poor domestic form, Bayern are huge favourite (1/4) to win within 90 minutes. In fact, the hosts have not lost a home Champions League match since 2020/21 (W10; D3) and have reached the quarter-finals in 10 of the last 11 seasons.

The odds for the draw (5/1) and a win for Lazio (10/1), both results that will qualify the team from Italy’s capital, are very high.

The Biancocelesti’s stoppage time win against Celtic back in October was their only Champions League success on the road in the last 11 games.

In the last three seasons under Sarri Lazio have only won two (against the Scottish champions and Lokomotiv Moscow in Europa League) of their last 13 away games in Europe.

Over 2.5 Goals pays 4/7, a good price considering in the last three Champions League campaigns, the Bavarians have only failed to score once (last November in their 0-0 draw against Copenhagen) in 13 games, where they averaged exactly three goals per game (39 in total).

Under 2.5 goals (5/4) is considered the less likely results, however Lazio’s numbers in Serie A are very average: they’ve got Italy’s 10th-best attack and are third from bottom for shots taken.

Bayern To Win To Nil @ 10/11

Despite all their issues, Thomas Tuchel’s side remain very strong at home this season: since August, they’ve only lost once (1-0 vs Werder Bremen) and drew twice.

In the Bundesliga home table, they’re just one point behind leaders Bayer Leverkusen and have scored five more goals than them (39 against 34).

This season, Maurizio Sarri has abandoned the high press and the large spells of possession to focus more on quick counterattacks.

Even if Bayern scores the first goal, Lazio won’t change their approach, but as the game goes on the hosts’ pressure might pay off. In fact, in Serie A Lazio have only recovered three points from a losing position.

In the last three seasons Bayern have not gone past the quarter-finals in the Champions League but they hold an amazing record at home, having lost only one of their last 22 games (3-2 vs PSG in April 2021).

Under 2.5 Goals @ 5/4

The Biancocelesti’s success last season was also built on an extremely solid defence (25 clean sheets in all competitions and only 21 goals conceded away from home), whereas in this campaign, they’ve already let in 26 goals on their travels and kept just 14 clean sheets.

Having already lost ten games on the road this season (including to Feyenoord and Atlético Madrid), avoiding defeat in Munich looks like an ominous task for Sarri and his men.

The game on Tuesday could be a low-scoring affair, considering only 15 out of 36 (39%) Lazio games this season have produced three goals or more, and the Biancocelesti have scored more than once only in seven of their 18 away games.

You can check out all of Daniele's Champions League Betting Tips here throughout the season, along with the previews from the rest of our football team...

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