Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Reigning champs to breathe life into Bundesliga title race

Bayer Leverkusen broke Bayern Munich's 11-year dominance in Germany in stunning fashion last season as they went the entire 2023/24 Bundesliga campaign without losing to win the title. Xabi Alonso's side have found things much more difficult this time around, however, and heading into Saturday evening's crunch clash with the Bavarians at the BayArena (17:30, Sky Sports Football), they trail Vincent Kompany's league-leading charges by eight points.

A victory, then, is paramount if they hold any hope of retaining their crown. To find out whether I believe a win is at all possible for the hosts, check out my Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich predictions down below, where you can also find all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Martin Terrier (Achilles) and Jeanuel Belocian (knee) have both been ruled out for the rest of the season, but aside from those two players and Mario Hermoso (illness), Alonso's squad is looking healthy ahead of a make-or-break contest in Leverkusen.

Die Werkself were held to a goalless draw by Wolfsburg at the Volkswagen Arena last Saturday so Alonso could elect to make a few changes to his starting XI this weekend.

Jeremie Frimpong and Florian Wirtz were only introduced in the 60th minute against Wolfsburg but as two of Leverkusen's most important players, will surely both be back from the off against Bayern.

Leading marksman Patrik Schick should also return to the starting XI and be joined by Alejandro Grimaldo, who served a suspension last weekend, and Edmond Tapsoba, who was benched for Hermoso.

Football Odds

Bayern Munich remain without Daniel Peretz (kidney), Alphonso Davies (hamstring) and Joao Palhinha (illness) for Saturday's trip to the BayArena.

Unlike Leverkusen, Bayern were in action in midweek as they beat Celtic 2-1 in Glasgow in the first leg of their Uefa Champions League play-off tie, with the return leg taking place next Tuesday in Munich.

Summer signing Hiroki Ito made his Bayern debut in Scotland after recovering from the issue that had kept him out since the start of the season. The 25-year-old Japanese defender played the final 13 minutes at Celtic Park and could be set for another substitute appearance on Saturday.

Kompany named a strong starting XI on Wednesday and the likes of Manuel Neuer, Jamal Musiala, Michael Olise and Harry Kane will surely keep hold of their starting spots.

Kim Min-jae, Sacha Boey, Kingsley Coman and Aleksandar Pavlovic are among those that will come into Kompany's thinking as he debates whether to make alterations to his side.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Odds

Leverkusen have the upper hand in this head-to-head over the last couple of years with Bayern failing to win any of the last five meetings between the sides; their last victory over Die Werkself was in September 2022.

Saturday's hosts drew 1-1 in September's reverse fixture at the Allianz Arena and beat the Bavarians 1-0 at the same venue in the last 16 of the DFB-Pokal in December.

Alonso's men are still considered underdogs on Saturday, though, with odds of 21/10 implying a 32.3% chance of success, while their visitors are 5/4, or a 44.4% chance, to claim an eighth straight win in the Bundesliga.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 8/15, and over 3.5 total goals at 13/8.

Kane (23/20) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by Leverkusen pair Victor Boniface (7/4) and Schick (9/5).

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Bayer Leverkusen & Yes @ 18/5

I know Bayern have won 11 of their last 12 games in all competitions, and their last seven in the league, but I think we're getting tremendous value on backing a home win at 21/10, and even more so by combining that selection with both teams to score (18/5).

Bayern may have swept aside the likes of Werder Bremen (3-0) and Hoffenheim (5-0) at the Allianz Arena over the past month, but they've also been forced to dig deep in wins over Celtic (1-2), Holstein Kiel (4-3) and Freiburg (1-2), while Feyenoord were clinical in a 3-0 victory over them in Rotterdam on January 22.

Leverkusen, meanwhile, have been in good form themselves and are unbeaten in the Bundesliga since losing 3-2 at home to RB Leipzig on August 31, which remains their only league defeat of the season.

They've won 11 of their last 13 games in the German top flight and have progressed to the semi-finals of the DFB-Pokal, beating Bayern in Bavaria along the way, so they shouldn't be fearing the visit of Kompany's side this weekend.

Bayern haven't been able to get the better of them for more than two years and it's they who will be feeling under pressure heading into Saturday's contest.

Leverkusen won the title last year but Bayern were installed as big favorites to reclaim their crown and a second-place finish would still be a great achievement for Die Werkself this season. It's something they are well on course for as they currently sit seven points clear of third-place Eintracht Frankfurt, and Saturday is something of a free hit with few repercussions for them if they don't claim all three points.

If they do, though, then the title race is back on, as just five points will separate the two clubs.

I'm expecting goals in this one with Leverkusen joint-top of the Bundesliga BTTS table alongside Dortmund, with both clubs seeing BTTS - Yes land in 81 per cent (17) of their 21 league fixture so far.

Bayern (52 per cent) are mid-table in that regard but both teams have scored in five of their last seven matches and they've kept just one clean sheet in that period.

Leverkusen and Bayern shared two goals at the Allianz Arena in September and I can see both sides getting on the scoresheet this weekend, but it's the hosts who I am backing to prevail.

Player to Receive a Card - Piero Hincapie (LEV) @ 23/10

Left-sided Leverkusen defender Piero Hincapie received 18 yellows and three reds across his first two Bundesliga campaigns but has toned things down in the last couple of years, avoiding a sending-off in the competition in the last one-and-a-half seasons and being cautioned just five times - three of which have been in 2024/25.

However, he was dismissed for two bookable offences in his side's 2-1 defeat to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League last month, and on Saturday could be marking Bayern star Olise, who has been fouled 1.9 times per game on average in the Bundesliga this season.

With Olise lining up on the right-hand side of Bayern's attack and Hincapie the furthest left of a three-man defence, the conditions are there for the Ecuadorian to go into the referee's notebook at the BayArena.

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