Barcelona vs Villarreal Prediction: Barca to slip up?

Barcelona will be in party mode on Sunday as they celebrate winning La Liga for the 28th time, following their 2-0 victory in the derby at Espanyol in midweek. Villarreal will be hungry to dampen the mood though, as they target a victory that would secure a place in next season’s Champions League.

It has been an almost perfect domestic season for Hansi Flick and his side. Having already defeated Real Madrid in the finals of the Supercopa and Copa del Rey, they secured a clean sweep by also pipping Los Blancos to the league title. Below you can find my Barcelona vs Villarreal predictions. 

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Any other outcome would have been pretty unjust given how unconvincing Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been this season, in comparison to a resurgent Barça who have been revitalised by the German.

As was the case two years ago, they won the title at the home of local rivals Espanyol on Thursday night. Another brilliant strike from Lamine Yamal set them on their way to a win that was sealed late on by Fermín López, another academy graduate who has made some big contributions over the past couple of months.

It wasn’t one of Barcelona's best performances of the season, with Espanyol doing a pretty good job of denying their rivals space to play in, whilst creating some good opportunities of their own on the break.

Some fatigue at this point is inevitable given the number of big matches that Barça have played over the past few weeks. They’d certainly be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas to some extent here, in what may be their final home game at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, before they return to Camp Nou.

Villarreal will be hoping that is the case, and the visitors won’t be lacking motivation as they travel to a ground which will hold happy memories after they dismantled Xavi’s Barça here by a 5-3 margin last season.

The Yellow Submarine head into this game following four straight victories over Espanyol, Osasuna, Girona and Leganés. Those results have ensured they’ve edged clear of Real Betis in the race for the fifth Champions League place, and Marcelino’s side hold a five-point advantage on the side from Seville heading into Sunday’s action, with only two games to play.

Given Betis are away to Atlético Madrid in a match that kicks off at the same time as this one, it’s quite possible that Villarreal will seal a top-five finish on Sunday, regardless of how they get on in Barcelona.

They’ll fancy their chances of taking care of their own business though, with the circumstances of this match falling less than 72 hours after Barcelona’s title win, certainly favourable to the visitors.

While there are still one or two weak points in this Villarreal team, they do have some genuine quality in their ranks, most notably in the shape of Spain internationals Álex Baena and Ayoze Pérez.

It has been a fine debut season at the Ceràmica for Pérez who has scored 18 goals in La Liga at a rate of one every 107 minutes. The ex-Betis man is playing the best football of his career at the age of 31, and his goals are the main reason why his new club looks set to pip his old team to the final Champions League place.

Baena has also excelled again, with 15 goal contributions from midfield, and Villarreal may be bracing themselves for bids for the 23-year-old in the summer.

Team News

Barcelona will be missing Jules Koundé, Ronald Araújo, Ferrán Torres and Marc Bernal due to injuries on Sunday. Flick is also expected to use this opportunity to finally rest some of his key players, with Pedri, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal among those most in need of a breather after a hectic few weeks of action.

That could serve up opportunities for the likes of Ansu Fati, Pau Víctor and Héctor Fort. Fermín, Gavi, Marc-André ter Stegen and Pau Cubarsí could also rotate in, with many changes expected from the team that started at the RCDE Stadium.

While one or two Barça players may have been nursing hangovers on Friday, Villarreal’s preparations for this game would already have been in full swing, and Marcelino is only likely to make light changes to the team that defeated Leganés 3-0 on Wednesday.

Santi Comesaña and Sergi Cardona are both expected to rotate back in. Thierno Barry and Kiko Femenia are also expected to be fit again following their recent injuries, but may not be ready to start the game. Raúl Albiol remains a doubt, while Ilias Akhomach is still sidelined with an ACL injury.

Barcelona vs Villarreal Odds

Barcelona are the 9/10 favourites for this match, despite the changes that Flick is likely to make. The Draw is priced at 16/5, while you can back Villarreal to seal Champions League qualification in style by winning this match at 5/2.

If you’re still expecting Barça to perform to their usual high level, you can back the home team to score over 2.5 goals at 6/4. Barcelona and Over 3.5 goals is on offer at 9/4, while you can back the hosts to score in both halves at 11/10.

Villarreal are priced at a tempting 21/20 to win either half. You can also back the Yellow Submarine to score over 1.5 goals in the game at 1/1, while a repeat of last season’s 5-3 scoreline in their favour is available at a huge 110/1.

Ayoze Pérez should spearhead their attack once more, and he’s on offer at 9/2 to score first and 11/10 to score anytime. Nicolas Pépé is another of their main attacking weapons and the ex-Arsenal man is priced at 11/5 to score anytime.

There’s much more uncertainty as to who will feature in the forward roles for Barcelona, but we should see Robert Lewandowski involved in this game and the Polish international is priced at 10/11 to add to his tally of 25 league goals.

Bet 1 - BTTS, over 2.5 goals & each team over 2.5 corners @ 11/8

Barcelona have not been at all convincing defensively in recent weeks, conceding at least three goals in five of their last nine matches. That’s partly the result of the risks they take going forwards, but a number of selection issues at the back have also contributed to that situation.

Villarreal are the highest-scoring team in La Liga outside the top two, with 64 goals this season, and they have a coach who favours the kind of counter-attacking football that could potentially catch Barça’s high line out.

That certainly serves up the potential for this to be another entertaining game involving Flick’s side and I’m backing Both teams to score, Over 2.5 goals and Each team over 2.5 corners at 11/8.

Bet 2 - Villarreal or Draw @ 9/10

Barcelona have played 13 matches since the beginning of last month, with something riding on all of those games, the vast majority of which were against strong domestic or European opposition. They were also taken to extra time by Real Madrid and Inter during that period, and it feels only natural that there might be some kind of drop-off in these final two games now the league has been won.

Even in different circumstances, this would have been a really tough game as Villarreal are a strong side that boasts the second-best away record in La Liga. The visitors will be extremely motivated as they look to secure a place in next season’s Champions League, and I think they’re quite capable of getting a result here, so I’m backing Villarreal or Draw at 10/11 in the Double Chance market.