Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction: El Clasico to thrill once again

Barcelona and Real Madrid meet for the fourth and final time in the 2024/25 season at Camp Nou on Sunday (15:15, live on Premier Sports 2), in a fixture that could all but end the title race in La Liga.

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon provides his Barcelona vs Real Madrid predictions, plus the latest match odds and vital team news.

If Hansi Flick’s side can continue their dominance of El Clásico this term by winning this match, they’ll be seven points clear of their eternal rivals, with only three games to play. That would set up the opportunity to mirror their 2023 feat by winning the league at the home of local rivals Espanyol this coming Thursday.

However, Real Madrid can set up a grandstand finale to the campaign if they manage to leave the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys with all three points.

Purely on the evidence of the three meetings so far this term, that looks an unlikely prospect. Barcelona made a huge statement by winning the reverse fixture 4-0 at the Santiago Bernabéu back in October. They’ve also since defeated their rivals 5-2 in the Supercopa final and 3-2 in the Copa del Rey final, although that match did go to extra time.

Followers of Los Blancos can at least take some encouragement from the most recent clash which took place only a fortnight ago in Seville. Carlo Ancelotti’s side came on strong in the second half and led going into the final 10 minutes thanks to goals from Kylian Mbappé and Aurélien Tchouaméni. However, Barça still found a way to come back to win, with Real Madrid completely losing their heads in the dying minutes of extra time, as red cards were shown to three of their players.

Antonio Rüdiger has since apologised for throwing ice in the direction of the referee, an action which earned him a six-game ban. However, the club’s war against the officials, led by Real Madrid’s own TV station, is very much ongoing, with the wonderfully-named Alejandro Hernández Hernández the latest referee to be scrutinised as he prepares to officiate this crunch clash.

Real Madrid are at an advantage in that they’ve only had to play 90 minutes of football since the cup final, whereas Bareclona have clocked up 300 minutes of action in the same period as a result of their Champions League commitments.

There may be both physical and mental fatigue in the home camp following a European semi-final for the ages against Inter Milan. Barça had to come back from two-goal deficits in both legs, and they were a matter of minutes from securing a place in the final when Raphinha struck to give his side a 6-5 aggregate lead at San Siro on Tuesday.

However, there was still time for one more twist, with Inter coming back to win 4-3 on the night and 7-6 on aggregate to leave the visiting players devastated at the end of extra time.

It was a tie that summed up the attacking brilliance that exists in this Barcelona side, with 17-year-old Lamine Yamal exceptional across the two legs, but also one that highlighted their defensive flaws, and the risks that go with their cavalier approach.

With Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior up top, Real Madrid should be well capable of exploiting Barça’s high line, while they may also look to target the home team’s current weakness in the full-back department.

Ancelotti’s side certainly have their own defensive weaknesses though, and they nearly contrived to throw away a three-goal lead against Celta Vigo last Sunday at the Bernabéu, with the Galicians causing many problems in the final 30 minutes in a game that ended 3-2 in favour of the side from the Spanish capital.

The big positive in that match from Ancelotti’s perspective was Arda Güler who was preferred to the out-of-form Rodrygo in the starting lineup, and impressed with a fine goal and an assist, having also netted the only goal in Madrid’s previous league game at Getafe.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid Odds

Barcelona are the 10/11 favourites to claim a victory that would all but clinch the title. A draw would also leave the Catalans firmly in the box seat, and that’s priced at 16/5. Real Madrid available at 12/5 to blow the title race wide open by winning the game.

The last five competitive Clásicos have all served up at least four goals, and the expectation is that this game will deliver on the entertainment front too. You can back there to be Over 3.5 goals on Sunday at 4/5, while you can back Both teams to score in the first half at 7/4. Both teams to score in the match is available at 1/3.

If you’re expecting the hosts to continue their recent dominance of this fixture, you can back Barcelona and Over 3.5 goals at 23/10, while Barcelona and Both teams to score is priced at 7/4.

Los Blancos did win on this ground last season in La Liga, and they are available at 10/11 to score over 1.5 goals in this match. You can also back Real Madrid to win and Both teams to score at 10/3.

Lewandowski leads the way as the 9/10 favourite to score anytime, although he may not play the full 90 minutes following his recent injury. The Polish striker is one clear of Mbappé in the Pichichi race, with the Frenchman available at 5/1 to score first and 23/20 to score anytime in this match.

There are plenty of other likely goal threats though, with Raphinha available at 6/4 to score anytime, while you can back Vinícius at 9/5, and Jude Bellingham at 12/5, in the same market.

Team News

Both sides have some major defensive selection issues heading into this game. Jules Koundé is the most significant absentee from a Barcelona perspective, with Eric García likely to continue at right-back. Alejandro Balde is available again after a month on the sidelines, but he may not be deemed fit enough to start ahead of Gerard Martín at left-back.

It’s therefore likely to be a similar side to the one that started in Milan, with Flick’s biggest decision likely to revolve around whether to go with the fit-again Robert Lewandowski or Ferran Torres up front. Marc Bernal is still sidelined through injury, while the hosts also have doubts over Pablo Torres, Andreas Christensen and Marc Casadó, with the latter nearing fitness again following a lengthy lay-off.

As for Real Madrid, they are down to the bare bones at the back, with Rüdiger, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, Ferland Mendy and David Alaba all currently sidelined. Eduardo Camavinga is their only other injury absentee, but they’ve at least avoided any fresh setbacks since last weekend’s victory over Celta.

Ancelotti could simply name an unchanged team as a result, with Rodrygo again likely to be on the bench. However, he may consider moving Fede Valverde to right-back, and handing Luka Modrić a start in midfield.

Real Madrid to win either half @ 1/1

Anyone of a Real Madrid persuasion would have enjoyed Tuesday night’s events at San Siro almost as much as Inter fans. Not only did they see their great rivals get knocked out of the Champions League, but they saw Barça run themselves into the ground in two hours of football.

That’s far from ideal from a Barcelona perspective in the build-up to a game of this magnitude, and they may struggle to play at their usual intensity for the full 90 minutes here.

While they won’t have many options to bring off the bench, Real Madrid should be in much the better shape and they showed enough in the recent cup final to suggest they can inflict damage on a Barça defence that has conceded at least three goals in four of their last seven matches.

The visitors should certainly have periods of superiority in this game, and I’m backing Real Madrid to win either half at 1/1.

Both teams to score 2+ goals @ 7/4

More often than not, El Clásico does live up to the enormous hype that surrounds it, by producing action-packed games full of attacking football and goals.

That was the case when the sides met only a fortnight ago in Seville, and this could potentially be even more open. A draw is no use to Real Madrid, so they have to target the victory, but this is a Barça side that clearly believes attack is the best form of defence, and they are unlikely to be deterred by what was ultimately a painful night in Italy in midweek.

Throw in the fact that Real Madrid are effectively missing all of their first-choice back four, while Barcelona have a clear vulnerability at full-back as a result of recent injuries, and we have the recipe for another high-scoring Clásico. I’m backing Both teams to score 2 or more goals at 7/4.

Offers

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