Barcelona vs Leganes Prediction: Back the home side to Win to Nil

Sunday's La Liga action ends in the Catalan capital as Barcelona are red-hot favourites to demolish Leganes in the 20:00 kick-off, live on Premier Sports 1.

Our Spanish-based football expert expects the home side to have a good evening and has picked out his two Best Bets for you in his match preview. Check out his Barcelona vs Leganes predictions below...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Barcelona are back in action on Sunday in La Liga, and they’ll be expected to breeze past struggling Leganés at the Estadi Olímpic. 

That was largely the case a fortnight ago against Las Palmas too, but the Canary Islanders stunned Hansi Flick’s side with a 2-1 victory in the Catalan capital. That was the first time this season that Barça had failed to win at home, and it serves as a warning heading into this fixture, that no game can be taken lightly. 

Since losing to Las Palmas, it has been something of a mixed picture for Barcelona. Their initial response was very positive, as they bounced back with a dominant Second Half display in a 5-1 win at Mallorca just three days later. 

They did drop points again in the league last weekend though, in another unconvincing display against Real Betis, in a match that ended 2-2 at the Benito Villamarín. Barça have only won one of their last five league games as a result of that, and they may have slipped to 2nd place by kick-off on Sunday night, depending on Real Madrid’s result at Rayo. 

This serious dip in league form certainly casts doubt on whether Barcelona are quite as good as they looked in the opening months of the season. There is a sense that a heavy workload is catching up on a few players, and questions are being asked of Flick and his reluctance to rest the likes of Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski. 

However, under the German’s management, we’ve also seen Barça regularly dominate games in a manner that was very rarely the case under Xavi, or his predecessors Ronald Koeman and Quique Setién. 

They’ve also notably delivered in Europe, with five wins out of six in the Champions League seeing the Catalans rise to 2nd in the standings. They were good value for a 3-2 win in Dortmund in midweek, although they did need an inspired cameo performance from substitute Ferran Torres to seal it late on. 

On paper, this is not a fixture that should cause the leaders of La Liga any trouble. Leganés were promoted as Segunda División champions earlier this year, but they’ve looked short on the quality needed to thrive, and potentially even survive, at the higher level. 

They head into matchday 17 just a place outside the relegation places and without an away victory, although five draws on the road have helped to keep their points tally ticking over. 

Defensively, they’ve been reasonably solid in most games, with 23 goals conceded in 16 matches. That’s not a terrible record for a newly promoted side. However, there are more serious problems at the other end of the pitch. 

They average only 0.88 goals per game, while their xG total is also the lowest in La Liga. Winger Juan Cruz is their only player to have scored more than once, with strikers Sébastien Haller and Miguel de la Fuente struggling badly and yet to score from open play. 

Los Pepineros were last victorious in the league in early November, when they defeated Sevilla 1-0 at Butarque, thanks to a late penalty from De la Fuente. It’s just a point from three games since then though, with their last two defeats both coming via 3-0 margins at home against Real Madrid and Real Sociedad. 

Team News: 

Barcelona have a rare free midweek following this, and only one more game in 2024, so it’s likely that Flick will go strong here and name a similar eleven to the one that triumphed in Germany on Wednesday. 

They have no fresh issues following the trip to the Westfalenstadion, with Raphinha expected to be available, despite a minor injury scare. Marc-André ter Stegen, Andreas Christensen and Marc Bernal are still out. 

As for Leganés, they’ll have to cope without the suspended Valentin Rosier here. Adrià Altimira should be his replacement at right-back. 

The visitors are hoping to have a full squad available otherwise, with the exception of Enric Franquesa who recently tore his ACL. Borja Jiménez typically sends his team out in a 4-2-3-1 system, but a switch to a back five is possible here. 

Barcelona vs Leganes Odds

Unsurprisingly, Barcelona are the red hot favourites for this game at 1/9. The Draw is priced at 9/1, while you can back Leganés at 18/1, as they bid to replicate Las Palmas who were surprise 14/1 winners here two weeks ago. 

You can get bigger returns on the hosts, by backing Barcelona -2.00 Handicap at 19/20, or Barcelona and Over 3.5 goals at 10/11. The Catalans are also on offer at 9/10 to win both halves. 

Alternatively, you can get Leganés +2.00 Handicap at 15/8, while the visitors are available at 1/1 to score at some point in this game. 

La Liga top scorer Robert Lewandowski will see this as a good opportunity to add to his 16 goal tally. He’s priced at 5/2 to score first and 8/15 to score anytime. You can back Lewandowski to score two or more at 12/5. 

Raphinha is also in stunning form. He’s priced at 1/1 to score anytime, although the Brazilian is perhaps due a rest and less likely to complete the full 90 minutes. You can also back Lamine Yamal to score anytime at 13/10, while Ferran Torres is priced at 5/4 to score for the fourth game in a row. 

You can also take advantage of a 5/1 price boost, and back Lewandowski 2+ shots on target, Raphinha 2+ shots on target and Yamal 2+ shots on target. 

Bet 1 - Barcelona to win to nil @ 4/5 

Barcelona haven’t exactly specialised in clean sheets in recent weeks, but their defence should get a much easier ride in this game. Unlike Las Palmas, who stunned Flick’s side in their last home game, Leganés don’t really have the kinds of attacking weapons that will enable them to cause problems on the break. 

We are likely to see the visitors operate in a very defensive manner and Jiménez may see this as a damage limitation job as much as anything. While they’ve got some decent results against bottom half opponents, Leganés have been outclassed by the strongest sides, losing all four of their matches against top six opposition so far by two or more. 

They managed to score in only one of those games, and I can see the home team controlling this one, and I’m backing Barcelona to win to nil at 4/5. 

Bet 2 - Lamine Yamal 1+ assists @ 7/4 

Since scoring in El Clásico, Lamine Yamal has not netted in six outings for Barcelona, but he has continued to provide great service for his teammates. The teenager has registered an assist in each of his last three games, taking his assist tally to 11 in 20 club appearances this term. 

He has also assisted on five occasions for Spain since the start of Euro 2024, with the 17-year-old already one of the most dangerous players in world football, in terms of his ability to create chances. 

Against a pretty poor Leganés side, I’m backing Lamine Yamal 1+ assists at 7/4. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...