Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Back the draw at a good price

ITV4 has a big one from La Liga for us on Saturday night as Barcelona welcome in Atlético Madrid for a 20:00 kick-off.

As always, our Spanish football expert has cast his eye over the game and has picked out two bets - both at odds against - that he likes to come in. You can read his preview and those all-important Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid predictions right here at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

The top two in La Liga clash on Saturday. Barcelona's meeting with Atlético Madrid is likely to offer clues as to which direction the title race may be heading, before the Spanish top flight pauses for its winter break. 

There have already been some very significant shifts over the past few weeks. While Barça have dropped points in five of their last six league games to surrender a significant advantage at the top, Atleti have rattled off 11 straight wins in all competitions, to suggest they are going to be serious contenders this year. 

The momentum is certainly with the visitors heading into this game, but this is not a fixture that they tend to enjoy and that's putting it mildly. Atlético have not won away to Barcelona in La Liga since way back in the 2005/06 season. They've also lost their last five games overall against the Catalans who have been a thorn in Diego Simeone's side throughout his long reign in the red and white half of Madrid. 

Victory on Saturday would surely be Atleti's most significant league result since they won the 2020/21 title. They've not really been involved at the very summit of the Spanish top fight since, but there has been a lot to like about them in recent weeks. 

There's much more clarity to what they are trying to do than was the case earlier in the season, and Simeone has settled on the 4-4-2 system that delivered so much of Atleti's success in the 2010's.  

Antoine Griezmann and Julián Alvarez are high quality players who are starting to click up top, but his current best eleven also features a number of more surprising names who were not viewed as anything more than fringe players only a couple of months back. 

That includes his own son, with Giuliano Simeone injecting real energy into the team on the right flank. Javi Galán, a player that the Atleti boss didn't seem to rate at all until very recently, also now feels like a fixture at left-back. Meanwhile, Clement Lenglet has also surprisingly forged his way into the side as a first choice centre-back. 

Atlético also arguably boast the deepest squad in Spain, with the likes of Robin Le Normand, Koke and Alexander Sørloth currently having to settle for a place on the bench. They will feel as though they still have a point to prove in big games like this one though, with their 11 game winning streak involving a number of very favourable fixtures across domestic and European competitions. 

Barcelona's players will also feel as though they need to put in a big performance here, as response to a shock 1-0 home defeat against struggling Leganés last weekend. That topped even their 2-1 home loss against Las Palmas a fortnight previously, in terms of how utterly unexpected it was. 

Prior to those two games, Barça had won all eight home matches in all competitions this term, scoring 30 times in the process. Their inability to break open a limited Leganés side that sat deep with a back five, having fallen behind in just the fourth minute, was really striking and adds to the sense that you just don't know what kind of Barça you're going to get at the moment. 

In between those surprise losses, Hansi Flick's side did put in two really impressive away performances, deservedly winning 5-1 at Mallorca in La Liga and 3-2 at Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. It's therefore not so much a case of a misfiring Barça right now, but one that is blowing hot and cold, and struggling to replicate their early season intensity on anything like a consistent basis. 

Team News: 

Lamine Yamal is the big injury absentee for the home team heading into this match. The teenager has an ankle problem that will rule him out for the next few weeks. Flick may respond by handing a start to in-form Ferran Torres, but could prefer the security and energy levels of Gavi against strong opposition. 

Pau Cubarsí should rotate back into the defence in place of Eric García in what may be the only other change from last weekend. Marc-André ter Stegen, Andreas Christensen and Marc Bernal remain sidelined. 

As for the visitors, the good news continues for Simeone, with what should be a full squad to pick from for this game. He's not expected to change much from the 1-0 win over Getafe last time out, despite substitute Sørloth being the scorer of the only goal. 

The most likely switch is on the left of midfield, where Conor Gallagher may be preferred to Samuel Lino. 

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Barcelona head into the game as the 9/10 favourites to win it and secure top spot heading into the new year. Atlético Madrid are available at 11/4 to make it 12 wins on the spin, while you can also back the Draw at 11/4. 

It's the kind of match that will divide opinion amongst punters. The form book certainly suggests the visitors have a real chance and you can back Atleti to win either half at 6/5. Draw or Atlético Madrid is on offer at 9/10, while Over 1.5 away goals is priced at 6/4. 

A midweek rest might have done the home team some good though, and you can back Barcelona to win and Over 2.5 goals at 8/5. 16 of their 17 victories in all competitions this term have come in games with three or more goals, and you can also back Barça to score in both halves at 7/5. 

Robert Lewandowski leads the way in the goalscorer markets. With 23 goals in 23 games in all competitions this term, the striker can be backed at 4/1 to score first here, while he's 11/10 to score anytime. Raphinha is also having a prolific campaign and the Brazilian is priced at 7/4 to score anytime. 

From a visiting perspective, Griezmann is very much the form player heading into this with seven goals in his last six appearances. You can back the Frenchman to score first against his old club at 15/2, while he's priced at 11/5 to score anytime. 

Bet 1 - Under 3.5 goals & Barcelona most corners @ 7/5 

There is still a perception in some quarters that Atlético only play negative, defensive football under Simeone. That's not entirely true, but there is little prospect of the Atleti boss throwing much caution to the wind here, despite the impressive form his side takes into the game. 

He'd have been encouraged by how much success Leganés had here last weekend by defending deep, and we're likely to see a pretty conservative approach, initially at least, from the visitors. 

Barça's initial dip in form coincided with an injury for Yamal and it's certainly true that they've looked much less threatening whenever the teenager has been absent this term. That suggests they may struggle to create lots of opportunities in this game against La Liga's joint best defence. 

The hosts should spend much of the game in the opposing half though and they average 7.29 corners per home league match, with Atleti only averaging 3.75 on their travels. Therefore, I'm going to use the Bet Builder to back Under 3.5 goals and Barcelona most corners at 7/5. 

Bet 2 - Draw @ 11/4 

Atlético Madrid have been playing well and getting good results, and while this is a much stiffer test than virtually all of their recent games, they should be really competitive against a Barcelona side that looks to be feeling the effects of an intense campaign where Flick has been reluctant to rest key players. 

While the draw and an away win are available at the same price, I see the former being much more likely than the latter. Los Rojiblancos have a miserable record in this fixture over the past two decades and they'll be very happy to leave with a point here and stay level pegging with Barça heading into the new year, not least given they have a game in hand. 

With Flick's side struggling to break defensive sides down in their last two home games, there's every chance this ends up all square, and I'm backing the Draw at 11/4. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...