Barcelona vs PSG Prediction: Dembele to play key role on Tuesday

 | 15th April | 

7 mins read

barcelona psg predictions champions league 16 april 2024

PSG make the short trip to the Catalan capital on Tuesday night needing to overturn a one-goal deficit after going down 2-3 at home in the first-leg in a thoroughly enjoyable encounter.

We've asked our La Liga betting expert Mark Sochon to take a look at this one and he's picked out his two Best Bets as part of his Barcelona vs PSG predictions preview for us at Betfred Insights...

Barcelona vs PSG Betting Tips

  • Both Teams to Score (90 mins) & Over 1.5 Second Half Goals @ 5/6
  • Ousmane Dembélé 3+ Shots @ 6/4

Barcelona and PSG meet in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League quarter-final on Tuesday, with the Catalans favourites to progress into the last four after a 3-2 victory in an entertaining first leg.

While PSG started both halves brightly and scored twice in the opening five minutes of the second period, it was Barcelona who rose best to the occasion, with Raphinha the somewhat unlikely hero with a brace before Andreas Christensen nodded in the winning goal in the 77th minute.

In a clash between two former Barcelona teammates, Xavi got one over on his friend and former boss Luis Enrique, who had mischievously claimed to represent the famous Barca style and DNA better than his opposing number in his pre-match press conference.

While there was a goal for Ousmane Dembélé against his old club, the PSG boss was left to reflect on a disappointing night, with a number of his players struggling badly in the game. Gianluigi Donnarumma was shaky throughout in goal while former Real Madrid man Marco Asensio was a virtual spectator before being hauled off at the break. Even Kylian Mbappé was surprisingly quiet on an evening to forget for the Parisians.

However, even in their best away Champions League knockout performance in many years, there were still moments when Barca’s vulnerabilities were evident. That will offer hope to PSG heading into the return leg and it’s likely there’ll be a few more twists and turns before we know which of these sides will progress into a favourable semi-final against Atlético Madrid or Borussia Dortmund.

Barcelona were in league action at the weekend, making eight changes for the trip to Cadiz due to a combination of suspensions and Xavi’s desire to rest players ahead of the second leg of this tie.

The Catalans still won the game with an acrobatic effort from João Félix, one of the players who rotated in, sealing a 1-0 victory. That made it six straight victories in all competitions for Barca as they head into the biggest week of their season to date with a trip to the Santiago Bernabéu for El Clásico immediately following this match.

Even victory in Madrid is unlikely to be enough to change the course of the Spanish title race though, so the Champions League is unquestionably priority number one for Barca and the Estadi Olimpic should be as loud as it has been at any point since it became the club’s temporary home last year.

As for PSG, the French league rather helpfully gave their European participants the weekend off, so they’ve not played since the first leg. Luis Enrique’s side had gone 27 matches in all competitions without losing before hosting Barcelona and they are all but guaranteed to win Ligue 1 with a ten point advantage at the top and only six league games to play.

Their Champions League record this season has been much less convincing though, with four wins and three defeats in the competition. They took just one point from their three away group games but did win in Spain against Real Sociedad in the second leg of their Last 16 tie.

Team News:

Barcelona are expected to make just one change to the team that started the first leg in Paris. That should see Pedri, who came off the bench to supply a wonderful assist for Raphinha’s second goal, replace Sergi Roberto in midfield.

The 21-year-old Spain international had been sidelined through injury, but should be fit enough to start here, although he may not be ready to complete the full 90 minutes. Gavi and Alejandro Balde are Barca’s only absentees.

As for PSG, they are in a slightly stronger position this week with Achraf Hakimi available again following a ban and he should start at right back.

Luis Enrique’s team selection was widely criticised in the first leg and Marco Asensio, Kang-in Lee and Fabian Ruiz could all find their places under threat. Warren Zaire-Emery, Manuel Ugarte and Chris Ramos could potentially come into the eleven for PSG who have a doubt over Nordi Mukiele.

Barcelona vs PSG Odds:

Barcelona are the 6/5 favourites to win the second leg and secure safe passage into the last four. You can back PSG to win the game at 15/8 while the Draw is priced at 3/1.

After five goals last week and with PSG needing to chase the game, most things point towards this being relatively open again and the markets certainly reflect that. Both Teams to Score is very short at 2/5 while you can back Barcelona Over 1.5 Goals at 8/11 while PSG Over 1.5 Goals is on offer at Evens.

A repeat of last week’s 3-2 scoreline in favour of Barcelona is available at 16/1 while first leg star Raphinha is 21/10 to score anytime and 14/1 to score two or more.

Perhaps surprisingly, neither Robert Lewandowski nor Kylian Mbappé scored in Paris and both will be hungry to make a bigger impression on this game. Mbappe is the 3/1 favourite to score first and is priced at Evens to score anytime, while you can back Lewandowski to score first at 4/1 or anytime at 6/5.

You can also back Barcelona to win and Over 2.5 Goals at 7/4, but if you see the visitors putting at least a strong 45 minutes together, odds of 9/10 for PSG to Win Either Half may appeal.

Bet 1 - Both Teams to Score (90 mins) & Over 1.5 Second Half Goals @ 5/6

It’s likely that PSG may start with a slightly more combative midfield in the second leg, so we might not necessarily get an open, end-to-end game from the outset. However, at some stage they are going to need to try to force the initiative and given it’s not really in Barcelona’s nature to just sit back and defend, goals look virtually guaranteed again.

PSG have only failed to score in one of their last 35 matches in all competitions and it’s very hard to see Mbappe being as quiet as he was in the first leg again.

Barca will take a lot of confidence from their ability to cause problems from both open play and set piece situations in Paris though and I’m using the #PickYourPunt tool to back Both Teams to Score and Over 1.5 Second Half Goals at 5/6.

Bet 2 - Ousmane Dembélé 3+ Shots @ 6/4

While Mbappé is their main danger man, PSG may feel that their best way to get at Barcelona is by attacking down the right flank and targeting the home team’s attack-minded full-back Joao Cancelo.

That was certainly a strategy in the first leg and Ousmane Dembélé saw plenty of the ball against his old club and had five shots in the game, more than any of his teammates. With Achraf Hakimi returning on Tuesday, PSG should be even stronger on that side of the pitch and Dembele will be desperate to make a positive impression as he plays in front of his former fans who are unlikely to give him the warmest of receptions.

The Frenchman averages 3.03 shots per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season and I’m backing Ousmane Dembélé to have 3+ Shots at 6/4 here.

Mark Sochon primarily covers La Liga for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his and the rest of our Football Betting Tips from the team on our main Football page.

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