Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction: Chance for Barca to get back into their groove

 | November 11 | 

5 mins read

barcelona Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys scaled

After their recent defeat in El Clasico and a shock Champions League loss in midweek, Barcelona could do with a morale-boosting win and much-improved performance when newly-promoted Alaves come calling this Sunday.

It’s a 15:15 kick-off with live La Liga coverage from the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys available via Viaplay.

Barca’s season already feels like one of two halves. They started brightly and recorded back-to-back 5-0 victories over Real Betis and Antwerp in September. Joao Felix finally appeared to have found his perfect home and the Catalans looked to be settling in nicely to their temporary ground with Camp Nou undergoing extensive redevelopment work.

Fast forward to November and the outlook is considerably bleaker with questions starting to be asked of club legend Xavi for perhaps the first time with the Barca boss marking two years in the job this week.

That early season style has virtually disappeared with a series of sub-par performances. Anyone eyeing up the Handicap markets, will note that Barcelona have now gone 10 matches in all competitions without winning by more than a single goal. They had just one shot on target in a very poor 1-0 Champions League defeat against Shakhtar Donetsk on Tuesday night.

A casual glance at this fixture, at home to one of the relegation favourites, would suggest it’s a good opportunity for Barca to get back into their groove and head off into the international break in better spirits with a solid win.

Alaves have only managed to collect two points from six away games so far and have only managed to score three goals on their travels on their return to the Spanish top flight. It’s not a record that will exactly spark fear into the home dressing room, but the Basque side have been resilient and tough to break down which suggests this may not be a mere stroll in the park for the hosts.

Only one of those six away games saw Alaves lose by more than a single goal and they’ve only let in 1.33 goals per game on average this term overall. That’s the best defensive record of the sides in the bottom half heading into matchday 13 and they could be capable of frustrating Barcelona for long periods in this game.

Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction

  • Barcelona to win to nil @ 10/11
  • Draw/Barcelona - Half-Time/Full-Time @ 3/1

Team News

Barcelona’s injury problems may have had some impact on their dip in form, but they’ve mostly cleared up now. Robert Lewandowski returned to the starting lineup last weekend as Xavi’s team claimed a somewhat fortuitous late win at Real Sociedad while Pedri and Jules Kounde are also fit again and likely to make the starting eleven here.

The hosts will be without the suspended Gavi though, while this match will come too soon for Frenkie de Jong and Sergi Roberto who are still nursing injuries.

One potentially significant factor here that punters should be aware of, is that Alaves lost first choice centre-back Aleksandar Sedlar to a torn ACL this week. The experienced Serb is a key man at the heart of their defence, missing only one match this term to date, but he may now be out for the remainder of the campaign.

Given the difficulty of the fixture, I can see Alaves responding to that setback by switching to a back five and we can expect their boss Luis Garcia to effectively park the bus with teenager Samu Omorodion perhaps their only serious attacking outlet.

Match Odds

Barcelona are red hot favourites at 2/9 to win this game while you can back the draw at 11/2 and an unlikely Alaves victory at 11/1.

Despite their recent struggles, this is clearly still a fixture that Barca should emerge victorious in, but their recent form at least suggests it won’t necessarily be a big win. If you’re not convinced by this misfiring Barca side, you can back Alaves +2 Handicap at 11/10.

In the goalscorer markets, Robert Lewandowski is favourite to break the deadlock at 23/10 while Joao Felix is 11/2 to score the first goal.

Barcelona to win to nil @ 10/11

We shouldn’t expect much from Alaves in attack here. Luis Garcia is a conservative coach at the best of times and has spoken openly about expecting his side to be in a relegation battle.

Expect Alaves to defend deep and in numbers and look to frustrate a Barcelona side that are sure to enjoy the vast majority of possession. The visitors have lost half of their away games to nil this season in La Liga and I’m backing Barcelona to win to nil at 10/11.

Draw/Barcelona Half-Time/Full-Time @ 3/1

Barcelona have tended to start slowly at home in the league this term before livening up after the break.

They’ve fired blanks in the First Half in four of their six La Liga outings at the Olympic Stadium and it’s very striking that 62% of their home league goals have come after the 75th minute.

That suggests they are having to be patient but are ultimately capable of wearing teams down which makes odds of 3/1 for Draw/Barcelona in the Half-Time/Full-Time market look very good indeed.

You can see all the rest of our Football Betting Tips at our football hub on Betfred Insights.

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