Barbastro vs Barcelona Prediction: Barca to overcome slow start

The Copa Del Rey continues on Sunday and our Spanish Football expert thinks that Barcelona will get the job done but they won't have it all their own way...

Barcelona’s Copa del Rey campaign kicks off on Sunday with a trip to Aragon to play fourth tier Barbastro. Xavi’s team are huge favourites as you’d expect for this game and the last thing the Barca boss needs right now is an embarrassing cup defeat.

The Copa del Rey isn’t a major priority for Barcelona who have ground to make up at the top of La Liga, but are not out of title contention yet. They also have Champions League knockout football to look forward to, so we can expect Xavi to use what could be a busy month of Copa del Rey action to rotate his team and give minutes to some of his promising young players.

Barcelona come into this match after starting 2024 in much the same way that they ended 2023. There was a lacklustre First Half performance against Las Palmas as they fell behind, but to their credit, they did come out much stronger after the break. A few tactical tweaks ensured they found more space in behind the home team’s back-line which helped them ultimately win the game 2-1 thanks to a 93rd minute penalty from Ilkay Gundogan.

Xavi opted to leave Joao Felix on the bench for that game, a decision that paid off with Ferran Torres grabbing the equalising goal. Of greater concern though, is the seriously out of form Robert Lewandowski.

Barcelona paid around £40m for his services in 2022 and while the Polish striker was prolific in the first few months of his career in La Liga, his level has dropped to such an extent that he currently feels like a shadow of his former self.

Lewandowski now has competition in the form of 18 year old Vitor Roque who had opportunities to open his Barcelona account after coming on as a 78th minute substitute in Gran Canaria on Thursday night. The Brazilian is expected to make his full debut in this game.

Barcelona don’t have much in common with this weekend’s opponents Unión Deportiva Barbastro. The Aragonese minnows have spent their entire 89 year history hovering between the third and fifth tiers of the Spanish football pyramid and they’ve never previously hosted a game of this magnitude.

One thing the two clubs do have in common, is that they both beat Almeria by one goal last month. Barbastro’s defence held firm against La Liga’s bottom club to cause one of the biggest shocks in this year’s Copa del Rey by claiming a 1-0 win in the last round to set up this glamour tie.

Barbastro play in the northern section of the Segunda Federación and to put things in some perspective, they are currently one place beneath Real Sociedad’s C team in 9th place.

It would be one of the all-time great cup upsets, both in this country and further afield, were Barbastro to beat Barcelona on Sunday night. They can take a bit of encouragement from Barca’s struggles at this stage last season when they were forced to Extra Time in a dramatic game against third tier Intercity with Ansu Fati’s strike ultimately sealing a 4-3 win for the top flight outfit.

Team News:

Barcelona are in Supercopa action next week in Saudi Arabia and are unlikely to risk any players who are carrying even minor injuries in this game. Therefore the likes of Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Gavi, Marcos Alonso, Joao Cancelo, Inigo Martinez and Pedri are all expected to miss the trip to Barbastro.

Youngsters Hector Fort, Fermin Lopez, Vitor Roque and Lamine Yamal could all make the starting eleven, although Xavi is still likely to pick a few of his senior stars such as Frenkie de Jong and Jules Kounde as his side bids to make smooth progress into the next round.

Barbastro’s main danger man may be forward Adria de Mesa, their top scorer in the league and this will be a special occasion for the former Barca youth team player who is still a fan of the Catalan club.

It’s a once in a lifetime opportunity for these Barbastro players who have claimed back-to-back 1-0 home wins over teams from higher leagues to reach this point.

Match Odds:

Barcelona are priced at 1/12 to win this match. You can back Barbastro to win at 16/1 while the draw is available at 7/1 if you see this going to Extra Time and the tie will be decided on the night with penalties if required.

Xavi is likely to take this opportunity to rest Robert Lewandowski, so you may want to look at other names in the Goalscorer markets. Joao Felix could rotate in after missing out against Las Palmas and he’s 9/10 to score anytime while 16 year old sensation Lamine Yamal is 11/8 to score anytime.

You can back there to be Over 3.5 Goals at Evens while Both Teams to Score is priced at 6/4 if you see the underdogs getting on the scoresheet at some point in the game.

Bet 1 - Draw/Barcelona Half Time/Full Time @ 16/5

Barcelona are not starting games well and that has been a recurring theme throughout the season. They’ve been leading at the break in only four of their 19 league games and Barbastro have shown enough so far in this competition to suggest they are at least capable of setting up in an organised fashion and making it tough for what won’t be a full strength Barca eleven.

The huge gulf in quality should of course ultimately show, particularly when the hosts begin to tire in the latter stages of this game. However judging by some of Barca’s recent displays, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see Barbastro make it to the break level pegging and backing Draw/Barcelona Half Time/Full Time at 16/5 looks like it could be a decent punt.

Bet 2 - UD Barbastro +3 Handicap @ 4/5

Barbastro are yet to concede a goal in the Copa del Rey despite being drawn against two teams from higher leagues, including top flight opponents in the last round. Their league record also suggests they are quite a defensive team with only 17 goals conceded in 16 matches so if they can keep it tight in the early stages and get a foothold in the game, this may not be the stroll in the park that might be expected for Barcelona.

Barca’s record at this stage in the competition also suggests it may be relatively tight. Since the change in format in 2019, they’ve played four Third Round ties away to third tier sides and have failed to win any of them by more than a single goal inside the regular 90 minutes, twice needing Extra Time to go through.

While it’s true that Barbastro are one step further down on the ladder, Barcelona haven’t been convincing for several months and haven’t won by more than a single goal in any competition since September and I’m backing Barbastro +3 Handicap at 4/5 here.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...