Azerbaijan vs Sweden Prediction: Stick on Vik to bag first in Baku

Sweden return to the scene of one of their biggest embarrassments in recent memory on Thursday (17:00) as they take on Azerbaijan at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium in Baku. The match serves as the opener in Group 1 of Uefa Nations League Group C, with Estonia and Slovakia - the other two sides in the group - facing off later in the evening in Tallinn.

Read on for my Azerbaijan vs Sweden prediction and all the latest team news ahead of the Blue and Yellow's revenge mission in the capital.

Team News

Azerbaijan's most recent international was a 3-2 friendly victory over Kazakhstan on June 11. A day later, 69-year-old Fernando Santos, who led Portugal to success at Euro 2016, was appointed as the national team's new head coach.

Eight players called up in the summer have failed to make it into Santos' first squad, including 37-cap defender Anton Kryvotsyuk.

Azerbaijan's most famous club, Qarabag, are the most represented side with seven players, including Badavi Guseynov who with 71 caps, is the most experienced international in the current setup. Captain Emin Madmudov is his country's joint-record scorer of all time with 14 goals and the 32-year-old Netci midfielder struck two of those against Sweden in a 3-0 victory in Baku last November.

Renat Dadashov was the other scorer in that Euro 2024 qualifier, a game which saw Bahlul Mustafazada sent off just before the hour mark, and he has also been selected by Santos - Mustafazada has not.

All three goalkeepers in the squad - Rza Jafarov, Yusif Imanov, and Mekhti Dzhenetov - have all made just a single appearance each for the senior side.

Football Odds

Sweden's most experienced active goalkeeper, Aston Villa's 75-capped Robin Olsen, is injured and has been left out of Jon Dahl Tomasson's squad as a result, paving the way for AIK's Kristoffer Nordfeldt to start on Thursday. However, the ex-Swansea City shot-stopper won't be able to call upon the experience of national team captain Victor Lindelof in front of him, as the Manchester United defender has joined Olsen on the injury list.

Emil Krafth, another experienced defender, has withdrawn from the squad despite playing the duration of Newcastle United's last three games, citing injury. Other notable absentees from Sweden's latest squad include FC Copenhagen's Viktor Claesson and the New York Red Bulls playmaker Emile Forsberg, who is injured.

Tottenham Hotspur's Dejan Kulusevski will skipper the side in the absence of Lindelof and much of the responsibility will be placed upon the shoulders of the 24-year-old and Newcastle striker Alexander Isak, who struck on his last international start - a 2-1 friendly defeat to Denmark in June - and fired his first of the season for his club side in a 2-1 win against Kulusevski's Spurs on Sunday.

Azerbaijan vs Sweden Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Azerbaijan vs Sweden page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Azerbaijan are 9/2 to beat Sweden for the second time in a year, giving them an implied win probability of 18.2%, while the visitors are 1/2, or a 66.7% chance, to exact their revenge with a victory in Baku.

The draw is available at 3/1, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/5.

A repeat of last November's 3-0 scoreline in favour of the hosts is 66/1.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Sweden & Yes @ 12/5

Sweden will be desperate to avenge last year's humbling in Baku but their form under Tomasson, who was appointed as the first non-Swedish head coach of the national team in February, suggests that won't be a straightforward task.

Tomasson endured a difficult debut away to Portugal in March, suffering a 5-2 thrashing in Guimaraes, and although he won his first game in charge against Albania (1-0) four days later, he lost the third and fourth match of his tenure in June, going down 2-1 to Denmark and 3-0 to Serbia.

In fairness, Portugal, Serbia and Denmark represented tough fixtures, particularly as the latter two were finalising their preparations for Euro 2024, while the one nation Sweden were expected to beat - Albania - they did.

Since beating Sweden, Azerbaijan have lost two, won two, and drawn one of their five internationals. The victories came against low-quality opposition in Mongolia (1-0) and Kazakhstan (3-2), while they could only draw 1-1 with Bulgaria and lost to both Belgium (0-5) and Albania (1-3).

Impressively, though, they scored in four of those five games, only blanking against Belgium in Brussels, and in that match, they were reduced to 10 men inside 24 minutes.

Keeping their discipline is something Azerbaijan need to keep in mind on Thursday as they have been shown a red card in their last two competitive contests, including their victory over Sweden. Mustafazada's dismissal didn't cost them in that game but at 0-1 down, Eddy Israfilov's red against Belgium contributed to their heavy defeat against the Red Devils.

Given the fact Azerbaijan stuck three past Thursday's opponents just under 10 months ago, and that Sweden have shipped 10 goals in Tomasson's first four outings, I'm backing the hosts to net at least once in Baku this week.

However, with the talent in the visitors' ranks, I have to believe the Swedes can turn the tide at some point and that their players start displaying the quality they do for their club sides.

First Scorer - Viktor Gyokeres @ 7/2

There are two clear candidates in the first scorer market on Thursday, and both hail from Sweden. Sporting Lisbon striker Viktor Gyokeres and Newcastle's Isak have been in scintillating form in club football for the past few years, the former lighting up the EFL Championship with Coventry City before sealing a big move to Portugal where he has continued to blossom, netting 29 times in last season's Primeira Liga.

Isak, meanwhile, followed up a 10-goal debut campaign in the Premier League with 21 strikes for the Magpies last term. Both Isak and Gyokeres are among the top 10-15 strikers in European football, but the conundrum in front of Tomasson is whether he can fit the duo in the same side, and in what positions.

The 5-2 defeat to Portugal is the only time Isak and Gyokeres have started together under Tomasson - Gyokeres struck Sweden's first goal of the game - while Isak was responsible for Sweden's most recent strike, in June's 2-1 defeat to Denmark in Copenhagen.

Isak is, arguably, the more gifted of the two technically, and the 24-year-old is two years Gyokeres' junior, but the Sporting striker has started the season in terrific form, netting seven times in his first four league matches, and is more likely to be deployed as the archetypal centre-forward, with Isak dropping deeper and drifting to the left.

For those reasons, I'm backing Gyokeres to grab the first goal of the game on Thursday, as he has done in his last two matches at club level.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Nations League game on Thursday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on any Nations League game on Friday.