AZ vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction: Early onslaught from desperate Dutch hosts

It was all going so well for AZ Alkmaar in Krakow last week, but three late goals from Shakhtar Donetsk saw the Ukrainian side sail into a 3-0 first-leg lead ahead of Thursday’s return fixture at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar (17:45 BST, TNT Sports 7).

Below are my AZ vs Shakhtar Donetsk predictions, alongside the latest team news and match odds, as the Dutch host plot the comeback of all comebacks in their Uefa Conference League quarter-final tie.

Team News

Peer Koopmeiners (muscle), Jizz Hornkamp and Denso Kasius (both unspecified), all of whom missed last week's first leg in Krakow, remain out of action for Leeroy Echteld's AZ side.

Football Odds

As for Shakhtar Donetsk, boss Arda Turan is unlikely to be able to call upon Danylo Udod, Dymtro Kryskiv, Marlon Gomes, Eguinaldo (all unspecified) or Isaque Silva (concussion).

AZ vs Shakhtar Donetsk Odds

AZ are 1/1 to win on the night, implying a 50% probability of success, while Shakhtar are 11/5, or a 31.3% chance, to do the double over the Dutch side, with the draw offered at 13/5.

The hosts are 7/1 to win the tie by any means, with the visitors 1/16 in the same market.

AZ striker Troy Parrott To Score 2+ Goals has been boosted from 5/1 to 6/1.

Match Result - AZ @ 1/1

This, in my opinion, is a fantastic price, purely to back a home win on Thursday.

AZ are undefeated at AFAS Stadion since January 31 and have won their last seven games on home soil, keeping four clean sheets and conceding just three goals.

Shakhtar, to their credit, won all three of their away matches in the league phase of this competition before triumphing 3-1 at Polish side Lech Poznan in their last-16 tie last month, but a trip to Alkmaar represents a step up in class.

Today's Football Fixtures

Shakhtar can afford to lose this game, even by two goals, and still book their spot in the semi-finals without requiring extra time, so I don’t see the visitors venturing too far forwards in search of a goal.

AZ, meanwhile, will be going all out for three goals, and are likely to pin their Ukrainian counterparts back for the majority of the match, so I’m more than happy to take the hosts here at EVS.

Result After 20 Minutes - AZ @ 13/5

Let's back AZ to make things interesting with an early goal in Alkmaar.

It took De Kaasboeren just seven minutes to open the scoring against Heerenveen last Sunday, and their second in that 3-0 Eredivisie victory at AFAS Stadion arrived just a minute later.

That was the second successive home match in which they had raced into a two-goal lead inside the first 20 minutes, with their two goals in a 2-0 win over Fortuna Sittard on April 4 coming in the 11th and 15th minutes.

AZ have been leading after 20 minutes in four of their last six games, including their 4-0 success away to Sparta Prague in the second leg of their Conference League last-16 tie on March 19.

Shakhtar, meanwhile, have been a goal down after 20 minutes four times in Europe this season, including their 2-1 last-16 second-leg defeat to Lech Poznan last month.

AZ will be desperate to score an early goal to give them and their supporters the belief that they can overturn Shakhtar's three-goal advantage, so I'm expecting an early assault on the visitors' goal here.

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