Austria vs Slovenia Prediction: Baumgartner to score again

Austria take on Slovenia for their final Uefa Nations League fixture on Sunday (17:00, YouTube), knowing that a win would see them promoted to League A. They need to ensure they better or match Norway's result with Kazakhstan to get the job done. 

Slovenia have a slight chance of finishing in the top two but they would need a favourable goal swing for that to happen. Read on for my Austria vs Slovenia prediction, featuring the latest match odds and team news.

Austria vs Slovenia Odds

Austria are 1/2 to win this match, giving them an implied probability of 66.7%. Slovenia are priced at 11/2 to collect the three points, which gives them a theoretical chance of 15.4%. The draw is marketed at 100/30 (23.1%).

Both teams to score is available at 5/6 and over 2.5 goals can be backed at 8/11.

Slovenia's Benjamin Sesko is the leading marksman in the Nations League with five goals in five outings, and he is 8/1 to open the scoring on Sunday, or 13/5 to score anytime.

Austria's Christoph Baumgartner, Marcel Sabitzer, Michael Gregoritsch and Marko Arnautovic have all scored twice in this competition. They are 7/4, 9/4, 6/4 and 7/5 respectively to score anytime in this clash.

Football Odds

Team News

The hosts' main absence continues to be David Alaba due to a serious injury. Manager Ralf Rangnick has welcomed back fellow defenders Kevin Danso and Max Wober, with the latter having only just recovered from a serious injury of his own.

Danso partnered Philipp Lienhart in the heart of defence the other night so that partnership is expected to continue on Sunday. Lienhart is another of Rangnick's players to have scored twice in this season's Nations League.

Andreas Weimann will be hoping to feature after his bright start to the season with Blackburn Rovers, including two goals last weekend against Cardiff City in the EFL Championship. He made an appearance from the bench against Kazakhstan last time out, so he could play a similar role again here.

Sabitzer will be looking for a recall to the midfield having watched the last match play out from the bench. The same goes for Arnautovic, who will be tussling with Gregoritsch to start up top, but after the latter scored on Thursday, Rangnick will likely persist with him leading the line.

Baumgartner looks set to continue in the number 10 role, as he too was on the scoresheet against Kazakhstan.

For Slovenia, leading marksman Sesko will start up front, hoping to add to his impressive tally of five goals. Midfielder Sandi Lovric returned from injury to return to the squad this month, and he made a cameo appearance from the bench in the defeat to Norway last time out. He is expected to start on the bench again on Sunday.

Jan Oblak will continue in goal for the visitors and will hope for better support from his defence this time, led by Udinese's Jaka Bijol.

Austria and both teams to score @ 11/5

When these two sides met on matchday one back in September, they played out a 1-1 draw. Austria have grown in confidence since then and they will be fancying themselves to pick up a further two points from their opponents on this occasion.

They know what they need to do to ensure that they top the group and gain promotion, and I believe their game plan will be executed to perfection once again. Their win on Thursday will have given them confidence, and they will be raring to go at home for one last push.

I've already listed the players that Rangnick can rely upon to share the goal burden, so I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of them add to their tallies at the weekend.

They've gained momentum from three wins on the spin, and I think they have more than enough quality to turn that run into four on Sunday. They are coming up against a Slovenia side that were hit hard against Norway, losing 4-1.

That sucker punch will have their heads spinning against the group leaders, and I think the hosts will reap the rewards as a result. I've boosted the odds by adding both teams to score because Slovenia have only blanked in one of their five matches to date, and they have already breached Austria's back line.

Sesko was the culprit that day, and as long as he's on the pitch, Slovenia will always have a chance of getting on the scoresheet.

Christoph Baumgartner anytime goalscorer @ 7/4

I backed Arnautovic to score for Austria the other night and that went horrifically as he didn't make it onto the pitch. This has made me reassess ahead of the weekend, and so this time I'm going for Baumgartner to get on the scoresheet.

He delivered another impressive performance on Thursday and his goal will have given him confidence ahead of his team's finale against Slovenia. The attacker is often able to get himself into good positions to get shots off, and I think he will cause a lot of problems for Slovenia's back line.

They won't be looking forward to facing him after they shipped four goals against Norway, so Baumgartner will be smelling blood ahead of this contest. I think 7/4 offers good value for him to score for the second successive match, and so I'm going with him this time and hoping for a much better result than last time.

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