Western Sydney Wanderers vs Sydney Prediction: Thurgate amongst the cards at CommBank

This Saturday (08:35 GMT, TNT Sports 4) marks the first Sydney derby of the 2025/26 Australian A-League Men's season. Sydney FC, fresh off a 3-0 win against Melbourne Victory in the Big Blue, lead the table after five rounds of fixtures, and will fancy their chances of extending their five-game unbeaten run against Western Sydney Wanderers, who only claimed their first win of the campaign last weekend (3-2 v Central Coast Mariners).

Below are my Western Sydney Wanderers vs Sydney predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of derby day at CommBank Stadium.

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Team News

Brandon Borrello (hamstring) is still out injured for Western Sydney Wanderers, who have called Ruon Tongyik and Mohamed Al-Taay into their extended squad.

Football Odds

Ben Garuccio is still waiting for his Sydney debut, and while he is in the extended squad for Saturday's derby, it remains to be seen whether he is included in the matchday 18.

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Sydney Odds

The Wanderers last tasted success against their city rivals in November 2023, winning 1-0 at Allianz Stadium. Their last home victory over the Sky Blues, though, was back in March 2022 (2-0).

Saturday's hosts are 9/5, or a 35.7% chance, to end their two-year wait for a derby win, while visitors Sydney are 23/20 to claim a fifth consecutive victory at CommBank Stadium, implying a 46.5% probability of success, with the draw offered at 5/2.

Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 5/4

We've seen a few spicy Sydney derbies over the last couple of years, with three of the five since the start of 2024 producing at least five cards and 50 booking points.

It's at CommBank Stadium where things seem to kick off most, with the last four meetings there seeing the over 42.5 booking points line land.

Today's Football Fixtures

Three of the Wanderers' five league games this season, including their last two, have produced exactly 40 booking points, going just under what we need here, but there were 50 awarded in their 1-1 draw at Macarthur on November 1.

Sydney have also seen 50 booking points issued in one game, also against Macarthur in a 2-0 victory on November 9.

Player to Receive a Card - Angus Thurgate (WSW) @ 3/1

Angus Thurgate picked up eight yellow cards in 28 ALM appearances for Western United last season before sealing a summer switch to the Wanderers, and it took just 57 minutes on debut for him to receive his first caution for Alen Stajcic's side as they drew 1-1 with Melbourne City on October 18.

The 25-year-old has avoided a booking in his last four games, but he's committed a foul in two of his last three, and could be forced into conceding a few free-kicks on Saturday, with Sydney midfield counterpart Paul Okon-Engstler averaging 1.6 fouls won per game in the competition.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season

 P/L: +14.25