Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction: More card chaos at Sky Stadium

Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners, both struggling in the 2025/26 Australian A-League Men's on eight points after as many games, meet for the second time this season on Sunday (02:00 GMT, TNT Sports 2). November's reverse fixture in Gosford saw the sides play out a 1-1 draw at Polytec Stadium, and the first meeting of the calendar year, at the New Zealand club's Sky Stadium in January, also finished level (0-0).

Below are my Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of each side's final fixture before Christmas.

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Team News

Tim Payne (broken collarbone), Hideki Ishige (ACL), Luke Supyk, Nikola Mileusnic and Nathan Walker (all unspecified) are out injured for Wellington Phoenix, but Paulo Retre has recovered from an abdominal strain, while Manjrekar James is back from a suspension served for a red card against Auckland FC on December 6.

Football Odds

Central Coast Mariners are boosted by the return from injury of 17-year-old midfielder Haine Eames, who has been out since a 2-0 defeat at Sydney FC in gameweek two.

However, Trent Sainsbury (Achilles) has been joined in the treatment room by 18-year-old forward Arthur De Lima (unspecified).

Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners Odds

Wellington have lost four of their last five games (W1), yet the Nix are 11/10 favourites on Sunday, implying a 47.6% probability of success, while the Mariners, who also lost back-to-back matches in the first half of December, are 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to record a first victory at Sky Stadium since April 2022, with the draw available at 9/4.

Booking Points Over/Under +32.5 - Over 32.5 @ 11/10

I think cards are the way to go here.

We've seen some competitive contests between these two teams in Wellington over the last few years, with four of the last five at Sky Stadium producing at least four yellow cards, and therefore 40+ booking points (10 per yellow).

Six of the last nine, in Gosford or Wellington, have seen the over 32.5 booking points line land.

Today's Football Fixtures

Player to Receive a Card - Harrison Steele (CCM) @ 13/5

There were a few candidates in this market, with Wellington skipper Alex Rufer and Mariners midfielder Alfie McCalmont (both 11/4) strongly considered.

However, I've ended up settling on another Mariners midfielder, Harrison Steele, who has been booked in both previous head-to-heads this calendar year.

The 23-year-old was cautioned four times in 25 ALM appearances last season, and he's picked up two yellows in seven games this term.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season (After GW8)

 P/L: +10.8%