Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland Prediction: Six consecutive Kiwi Classico conquests for Corica’s charges

The third and final ‘Kiwi Classico’ of the 2025/26 Australian A-League Men’s regular season takes place this Saturday (04:00 GMT, TNT Sports 1) at Sky Stadium, with Wellington Phoenix desperate to avoid a sixth consecutive head-to-head defeat against Auckland FC.

Below are my Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Wellington Phoenix head coach Giancarlo Italiano has been dealt a double injury blow heading into Saturday’s game.

Sarpreet Singh and Tim Payne, who both started last Friday’s 2-2 draw at Western Sydney Wanderers, have been ruled out with unspecified injuries, joining Nathan Walker (also unspecified) in the treatment room.

The good news is that goalkeeper Josh Oluwayemi, who hasn’t featured since coming off injured in the 11th minute of his side’s 3-1 victory over Central Coast Mariners on December 21, is back fit.

Football Odds

Auckland boss Steve Corica will have to make do without his main marksman, seven-goal striker Sam Cosgrove, who is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card of the campaign in Tuesday’s 1-1 draw at Sydney FC.

Cosgrove, who bagged a brace in the Black Knights’ 2-1 win at Sky Stadium in November, will be replaced in attack by Guillermo May.

Oli Sail (unspecified) remains sidelined, meanwhile.

Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland Odds

Wellington Phoenix are 13/5, or a 27.8% chance, to claim a first-ever victory over Auckland, who are 5/6 to maintain their perfect record in this head-to-head, implying a 54.5% probability of success.

Betfred’s Price Boosts include Auckland To Win Both Halves, which has been a winning selection in two of the previous three meetings, at 5/1 (was 4/1).

Match Result - Auckland @ 5/6

Auckland have dominated this fixture since their inception in 2024, winning all five meetings.

The reigning Premier’s Plate champions made an unconvincing start to 2026, losing three of their first six games (W1, D2), but they’re unbeaten this month, beating Sydney FC 1-0 at home on February 7 before drawing 1-1 away to the same opposition 10 days later.

Today's Football Fixtures

Wellington, meanwhile, are winless in their last four matches (D2, L2), and haven’t tasted success at Sky Stadium in their last three (D2, L1), claiming their most recent home victory against Central Coast Mariners (3-1) on December 21.

Auckland boast a more talented squad, are in better form, and have the mental edge on their rivals, having not dropped a point to them in any of the five meetings, so it’s hard to look past an away win on Saturday.

Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 11/8

The first-ever meeting between the two sides, in November 2024, saw just two yellow cards - 20 booking points - awarded, both for Auckland, but the following four head-to-heads have seen a minimum of four bookings.

Three of the subsequent four have finished with 50+ booking points, and the two games earlier this season both produced 70+.

Auckland’s 2-1 win at Sky Stadium in November saw two yellows and two reds dished out, totalling 70 booking points, before five yellows and two reds, adding up to 75 booking points, were handed out in the Black Knights’ 3-1 victory at Go Media Stadium in December.

Over 42.5 booking points, then, looks like a solid bet on Saturday at 11/8.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season (After GW17)

 P/L: +6.6%