Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: Goals the way to go at McDonald Jones Stadium

Newcastle Jets made it three wins out of three this calendar year with a 2-1 victory at Western Sydney Wanderers last Saturday, a result which saw Mark Milligan's side move up to third in the Australian A-League Men's. On Friday (08:35 GMT, TNT Sports 7), they host Wellington Phoenix, who are also unbeaten in 2026 (W2, D1), at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Below are my Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, as the eighth-place visitors, led by Giancarlo Italiano, eye a win that would see them draw level with their opponents on 21 points.

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Team News

Newcastle Jets trio Alexander Badolato, Christian Bracco and Oscar Fryer are all out for the rest of the 2025/26 campaign with ACL injuries.

Kosta Grozos (calf) and Zach Clough (groin) are sidelined, too, while Noah James, Jordan Baylis, Ben van Dorssen and Meliwethu Nkomo have all been left out of Milligan's extended squad.

Football Odds

Hideki Ishige (ACL), Luke Supyk, Dan Edwards, Joshua Oluwayemi and Nathan Walker (all unspecified) are sidelined for Wellington Phoenix.

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Odds

The Jets, who have won five of their last six games and triumphed 3-1 in December's reverse fixture, are 4/7 favourites on Friday, implying a 63.6% probability of success. Meanwhile, the Nix, who claimed a 2-1 victory in last season's corresponding meeting (March 2025), are 10/3, or a 23.1% chance, to make it three wins from their last four, with the draw offered at 16/5.

Betfred's Price Boosts include Newcastle Jets to Win, Lachlan Rose to Score & 4+ Goals at 11/4 (was 9/4).

Both Teams to Score 2 or More Goals Yes/No - Yes @ 9/4

The Jets have enjoyed their trips outside of Newcastle this season, picking up 15 points from seven games, which ranks as the best away record in the ALM.

Milligan's men have won three consecutive away matches this calendar year, conceding just twice, but in their last home outing, against Macarthur FC on Boxing Day, they were beaten 5-4.

The Jets have lost four of their six games (W2) at McDonald Jones Stadium, and no team has picked up fewer home points than their tally of six.

Newcastle have shipped 14 goals on home soil, three more than any other side, and have conceded 2+ goals in four of their six league contests there this term. They've been breached at least twice in six of their 13 league matches, home and away, while they've scored 2+ times in seven.

Both teams to score two or more goals has landed in three of their games, with the latest two both coming at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Today's Football Fixtures

The Nix, meanwhile, have scored 10 goals on their travels, with only the Jets (13) and Sydney (11), who have played one and two more away matches, respectively, netting more times.

However, Italiano's side have also conceded 11 goals in their six away games; only Melbourne Victory and the Mariners (both 11) have been breached as many times.

Home and away, only the Jets (24) have conceded more goals than the Nix (22), so this is a meeting of, statistically, the league's two poorest defences, and two best attacks (Jets - 26 goals, Nix - 21).

Both teams to score two or more goals has been a winning selection in two of Wellington's league games this season, most recently in their 2-2 draw with Adelaide United at Sky Stadium on January 11.

Corner Over/Under - Over 11.5 @ 6/5

The Jets are averaging 5.08 corners taken and 6.62 corners conceded - the latter is the highest in the league - per game, working out as 11.69 (for/against) per game, which is also the most in the ALM.

A mammoth 20 were whistled in last week's win over the Wanderers, who took 12 compared to the Jets' eight. All three of Newcastle's contests this calendar year have produced 11+ corners, with the first two, against Auckland FC and Melbourne City, seeing 11 and 12 corners recorded, respectively.

The Nix, meanwhile, are averaging 4.92 taken and 4.77 conceded per game, 9.69 per game combined.

In last month's meeting at Sky Stadium, 10 corners were registered, seven in the direction of the hosts, but the four previous head-to-heads had produced 12+, including the last three at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season (After GW13)

 P/L: +7.9%