Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar Prediction: ALM bad boys to create more chaos

Brisbane Roar's third consecutive defeat in the Australian A-League Men's last week saw them tumble down the table behind Melbourne Victory, who won 3-2 at Wellington Phoenix, and the two teams meet each other next, at AAMI Park on Saturday (06:00 GMT, TNT Sports 4).

Below are my Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Team News

Louis D'Arrigo (unspecified) is Melbourne Victory's only injury absentee, and head coach Arthur Diles has replaced him in the extended squad with Xavier Stella.

Football Odds

Jay O’Shea, Milorad Stajic, Henry Hore (all leg) and Nathan Amanatidis (quad) are still in the Brisbane Roar treatment room, while Noah Maieroni is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card of the campaign in last weekend's 2-1 home defeat to Central Coast Mariners.

Boss Michael Valkanis has omitted Ben Halloran from his extended squad, paving the way for new signing Marius Lode to make his Roar debut.

Chris Long is back from suspension, too.

Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar Odds

Melbourne Victory, who have won four of their last five home games, are 4/6 favourites to collect all three points on Saturday, implying a 60% probability of success, while Brisbane Roar are 10/3, or a 23.1% chance, with the draw offered at 13/5.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 1/1

It has been four ALM meetings since the last time a game between this pair produced three goals or more, with November's head-to-head settled by a single strike as Sam Klein's third-minute effort proved to be decisive.

Last season's corresponding fixture, meanwhile, saw Victory triumph 2-0 thanks to a goal apiece from Jason Geria and Nishan Vellupilay.

Today's Football Fixtures

Only Western Sydney Wanderers (15) have scored fewer goals in the ALM this season than Brisbane (17), whose games in 2025/26, home and away, average 2.29 goals.

The last five meetings between these two teams at AAMI Park have produced two or fewer goals, with a couple finishing goalless.

Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 11/10

November's head-to-head produced five yellow cards and one red, amounting to 75 booking points, while the other meeting last year, a 1-1 draw at Suncorp last March, saw the teams pick up three yellows apiece, totalling 60 booking points.

Brisbane have been the ALM's bad boys this season, collecting more yellow cards (46) than any other team; in fact, no other side has more than 36.

The Roar have also received two reds, putting them alongside three others at the top of the dismissal charts.

Victory, meanwhile, have been awarded 26 yellows and one red.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season (After GW16)

 P/L: +5.9%